IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v185y2019icp100-112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian model updating approach for detection-related problems in water distribution networks

Author

Listed:
  • Jensen, H.A.
  • Jerez, D.J.

Abstract

A Bayesian system identification technique is proposed for detection-related problems in the context of water distribution networks. The identification process is combined with a hydraulic simulation model for performing steady and unsteady analyses. In particular, leakage detection in water pipe networks is examined. A number of hydraulic model classes are defined as potential leakage events. Based on information from flow rates in the pipes, the implemented simulation-based Bayesian model updating technique provides estimates of the most probable leakage scenarios. Such scenarios correspond to the model classes that maximize their posterior probabilities. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated by applying the leakage detection approach to a complex water distribution system. Issues such as the effect of model and measurement errors, number of flow tests at each monitoring location, and sensor number and location on the performance of the detection methodology are addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, H.A. & Jerez, D.J., 2019. "A Bayesian model updating approach for detection-related problems in water distribution networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 100-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:185:y:2019:i:c:p:100-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018310913
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malings, Carl & Pozzi, Matteo, 2016. "Value of information for spatially distributed systems: Application to sensor placement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 219-233.
    2. Zarghami, Seyed Ashkan & Gunawan, Indra & Schultmann, Frank, 2018. "Integrating entropy theory and cospanning tree technique for redundancy analysis of water distribution networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 102-112.
    3. Chen, Thomas Ying-Jeh & Guikema, Seth David & Daly, Craig Michael, 2019. "Optimal pipe inspection paths considering inspection tool limitations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 156-166.
    4. Jensen, H.A. & Jerez, D.J., 2018. "A Stochastic Framework for Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Large Scale Water Distribution Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 80-92.
    5. Li, Daqing & Zhang, Qiong & Zio, Enrico & Havlin, Shlomo & Kang, Rui, 2015. "Network reliability analysis based on percolation theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 556-562.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, He & Deng, Zhi-Ming & Golilarz, Noorbakhsh Amiri & Guedes Soares, C., 2021. "Reliability analysis of the main drive system of a CNC machine tool including early failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Wang, Zeyu & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2023. "Bayesian updating with adaptive, uncertainty-informed subset simulations: High-fidelity updating with multiple observations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Wang, Zeyu & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah & Xiao, Xiong & Wang, Xiaowei & Li, Quanwang, 2022. "Optimal monitoring location for tracking evolving risks to infrastructure systems: Theory and application to tunneling excavation risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Shunkun & Zhang Jiaquan & Lu Dan, 2016. "Prediction of Cascading Failures in Spatial Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-11, April.
    2. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Bai, Hua, 2020. "Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Integrated Energy Systems with bi-directional conversion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Ruiz Muñoz, G.A. & Sørensen, J.D., 2020. "Probabilistic inspection planning of offshore welds subject to the transition from protected to corrosive environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Hao, Yucheng & Jia, Limin & Zio, Enrico & Wang, Yanhui & Small, Michael & Li, Man, 2023. "Improving resilience of high-speed train by optimizing repair strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    5. Villez, Kris & Del Giudice, Dario & Neumann, Marc B. & Rieckermann, Jörg, 2020. "Accounting for erroneous model structures in biokinetic process models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Kapoor, Medha & Christensen, Christian Overgaard & Schmidt, Jacob Wittrup & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard & Thöns, Sebastian, 2023. "Decision analytic approach for the reclassification of concrete bridges by using elastic limit information from proof loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Accominotti, Olivier & Lucena-Piquero, Delio & Ugolini, Stefano, 2023. "Intermediaries’ substitutability and financial network resilience: A hyperstructure approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Monfared, M.A.S. & Rezazadeh, Masoumeh & Alipour, Zohreh, 2022. "Road networks reliability estimations and optimizations: A Bi-directional bottom-up, top-down approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Di Maio, Francesco & Pettorossi, Chiara & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Entropy-driven Monte Carlo simulation method for approximating the survival signature of complex infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Tornyeviadzi, Hoese Michel & Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel & Mohammed, Hadi & Seidu, Razak, 2022. "A systematic framework for dynamic nodal vulnerability assessment of water distribution networks based on multilayer networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    11. Zhang, Jianhua & Wang, Ziqi & Wang, Shuliang & Shao, Wenchao & Zhao, Xun & Liu, Weizhi, 2021. "Vulnerability assessments of weighted urban rail transit networks with integrated coupled map lattices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Limiao, Zhang & Daqing, Li & Pengju, Qin & Bowen, Fu & Yinan, Jiang & Zio, Enrico & Rui, Kang, 2016. "Reliability analysis of interdependent lattices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 120-125.
    13. Wang, Shuliang & Lv, Wenzhuo & Zhang, Jianhua & Luan, Shengyang & Chen, Chen & Gu, Xifeng, 2021. "Method of power network critical nodes identification and robustness enhancement based on a cooperative framework," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Davila-Frias, Alex & Yodo, Nita & Le, Trung & Yadav, Om Prakash, 2023. "A deep neural network and Bayesian method based framework for all-terminal network reliability estimation considering degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    15. Memarzadeh, Milad & Pozzi, Matteo, 2016. "Value of information in sequential decision making: Component inspection, permanent monitoring and system-level scheduling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 137-151.
    16. Xu, Hao & Gardoni, Paolo, 2020. "Conditional formulation for the calibration of multi-level random fields with incomplete data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. Zarghami, Seyed Ashkan & Dumrak, Jantanee, 2021. "Unearthing vulnerability of supply provision in logistics networks to the black swan events: Applications of entropy theory and network analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    18. Lin, Chaochao & Song, Junho & Pozzi, Matteo, 2022. "Optimal inspection of binary systems via Value of Information analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    19. Seyed Ashkan Zarghami, 2023. "Deviation from a state of perfect uniformity: An indicator of structural complexity in projects," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 488-500, May.
    20. Fauriat, William & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Optimization of an aperiodic sequential inspection and condition-based maintenance policy driven by value of information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:185:y:2019:i:c:p:100-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.