IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v231y2023ics095183202200597x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Entropy-driven Monte Carlo simulation method for approximating the survival signature of complex infrastructures

Author

Listed:
  • Di Maio, Francesco
  • Pettorossi, Chiara
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

The reliability of critical infrastructures, such as power distribution networks, is of key importance for modern societies. The reliability of such complex systems can, in principle, be assessed by Monte Carlo simulation. However, the size and complexity of these systems, and the rarity of the failure events, can make the calculations quite demanding. Survival signature can help to address this issue, as it allows modelling the structure of the system separately from the probabilistic modelling for the reliability assessment. However, the survival signature calculation of complex, multi-component systems for their reliability assessment suffers from the curse of dimensionality, and both analytical calculation and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are not feasible in practice. Then, in this work, we propose a novel approach to approximate the survival signature of a system, which stands on the use of entropy to drive the sampling by MCS towards non-trivial system structure configurations, so as to save computational cost. The approach is exemplified by calculating the reliability of a generic synthetic multi-component network and the feasibility of its application is shown on a real-world network.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Maio, Francesco & Pettorossi, Chiara & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Entropy-driven Monte Carlo simulation method for approximating the survival signature of complex infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s095183202200597x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108982
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202200597X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108982?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dehghani, Nariman L. & Zamanian, Soroush & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2021. "Adaptive network reliability analysis: Methodology and applications to power grid," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Behrensdorf, Jasper & Regenhardt, Tobias-Emanuel & Broggi, Matteo & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Numerically efficient computation of the survival signature for the reliability analysis of large networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Reed, Sean, 2017. "An efficient algorithm for exact computation of system and survival signatures using binary decision diagrams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 257-267.
    4. Yi, He & Cui, Lirong & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy, 2021. "Computation of survival signatures for multi-state consecutive-k systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Zhang, Lin & Wen, Huiying & Lu, Jian & Lei, Da & Li, Shubin & Ukkusuri, Satish V., 2022. "Exploring cascading reliability of multi-modal public transit network based on complex networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Enrico Zio, 2013. "Monte Carlo Simulation: The Method," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 19-58, Springer.
    7. Enrico Zio, 2013. "The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4471-4588-2, February.
    8. Francisco J. Samaniego, 2007. "System Signatures and their Applications in Engineering Reliability," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-71797-5, December.
    9. Enrico Zio, 2013. "System Reliability and Risk Analysis by Monte Carlo Simulation," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 59-81, Springer.
    10. Patelli, Edoardo & Feng, Geng & Coolen, Frank P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, Tahani, 2017. "Simulation methods for system reliability using the survival signature," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 327-337.
    11. Enrico Zio & Nicola Pedroni, 2010. "Reliability Estimation by Advanced Monte Carlo Simulation," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Javier Faulin & Angel A. Juan & Sebastián Martorell & José-Emmanuel Ramírez-Márquez (ed.), Simulation Methods for Reliability and Availability of Complex Systems, chapter 0, pages 3-39, Springer.
    12. Kim, Youngsuk & Kang, Won-Hee, 2013. "Network reliability analysis of complex systems using a non-simulation-based method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 80-88.
    13. Qin, Jinlei & Coolen, Frank P.A., 2022. "Survival signature for reliability evaluation of a multi-state system with multi-state components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    14. Enrico Zio, 2013. "System Reliability and Risk Analysis," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 7-17, Springer.
    15. E. Zio, 2007. "From complexity science to reliability efficiency: a new way of looking at complex network systems and critical infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3/4), pages 488-508.
    16. Li, Daqing & Zhang, Qiong & Zio, Enrico & Havlin, Shlomo & Kang, Rui, 2015. "Network reliability analysis based on percolation theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 556-562.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mathpati, Yogesh Chandrakant & More, Kalpesh Sanjay & Tripura, Tapas & Nayek, Rajdip & Chakraborty, Souvik, 2023. "MAntRA: A framework for model agnostic reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salomon, Julian & Winnewisser, Niklas & Wei, Pengfei & Broggi, Matteo & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Efficient reliability analysis of complex systems in consideration of imprecision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Behrensdorf, Jasper & Regenhardt, Tobias-Emanuel & Broggi, Matteo & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Numerically efficient computation of the survival signature for the reliability analysis of large networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Shi, Yan & Behrensdorf, Jasper & Zhou, Jiayan & Hu, Yue & Broggi, Matteo & Beer, Michael, 2024. "Network reliability analysis through survival signature and machine learning techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    4. Mohammad Nadjafi & Mohammad Ali Farsi & Hossein Jabbari, 2017. "Reliability analysis of multi-state emergency detection system using simulation approach based on fuzzy failure rate," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(3), pages 532-541, September.
    5. Compare, Michele & Bellani, Luca & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "Optimal allocation of prognostics and health management capabilities to improve the reliability of a power transmission network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 164-180.
    6. Wang, Shaoxuan & Yao, Yuantao & Ge, Daochuan & Lin, Zhixian & Wu, Jie & Yu, Jie, 2023. "Reliability evaluation of standby redundant systems based on the survival signatures methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    7. Michele Compare & Francesco Di Maio & Enrico Zio & Fausto Carlevaro & Sara Mattafirri, 2016. "Improving scheduled maintenance by missing data reconstruction: A double-loop Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(5), pages 502-511, October.
    8. Wang, Fan & Li, Heng, 2018. "System reliability under prescribed marginals and correlations: Are we correct about the effect of correlations?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 94-104.
    9. Tito G. Amaral & Vitor Fernão Pires & Armando Cordeiro & Daniel Foito & João F. Martins & Julia Yamnenko & Tetyana Tereschenko & Liudmyla Laikova & Ihor Fedin, 2023. "Incipient Fault Diagnosis of a Grid-Connected T-Type Multilevel Inverter Using Multilayer Perceptron and Walsh Transform," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka & Niemi, Arto & Gutleber, Johannes & Koskinen, Kari T. & Coatanéa, Eric & Laitinen, Jouko, 2019. "An open modelling approach for availability and reliability of systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 387-399.
    11. Rocco, Claudio M. & Moronta, José & Ramirez-Marquez, José E. & Barker, Kash, 2017. "Effects of multi-state links in network community detection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 46-56.
    12. Babykina, Génia & Brînzei, Nicolae & Aubry, Jean-François & Deleuze, Gilles, 2016. "Modeling and simulation of a controlled steam generator in the context of dynamic reliability using a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 115-136.
    13. Compare, Michele & Bellani, Luca & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "Reliability model of a component equipped with PHM capabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 4-11.
    14. Gascard, Eric & Simeu-Abazi, Zineb, 2018. "Quantitative Analysis of Dynamic Fault Trees by means of Monte Carlo Simulations: Event-Driven Simulation Approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 487-504.
    15. Shiyu Chen & Wei Wang & Enrico Zio, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Framework for the Production Planning in Energy Supply Chains," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-27, May.
    16. Kim, Hyeonmin & Kim, Jung Taek & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2018. "Failure rate updates using condition-based prognostics in probabilistic safety assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 225-233.
    17. Martin Folch-Calvo & Francisco Brocal-Fernández & Cristina González-Gaya & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2020. "Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-35, September.
    18. Cadini, F. & Gioletta, A., 2016. "A Bayesian Monte Carlo-based algorithm for the estimation of small failure probabilities of systems affected by uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 15-27.
    19. Turati, Pietro & Pedroni, Nicola & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 117-126.
    20. Sergio Copiello, 2020. "Business as Usual with Article Processing Charges in the Transition towards OA Publishing: A Case Study Based on Elsevier," Publications, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s095183202200597x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.