IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v156y2016icp175-184.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A change-point based reliability prediction model using field return data

Author

Listed:
  • Altun, Mustafa
  • Comert, Salih Vehbi

Abstract

In this study, we propose an accurate reliability prediction model for high-volume complex electronic products throughout their warranty periods by using field return data. Our model has a specific application to electronics boards with given case studies using 36-month warranty data. Our model is constructed on a Weibull-exponential hazard rate scheme by using the proposed change point detection method based on backward and forward data analysis. We consider field return data as short-term and long-term corresponding to early failure and useful life phases of the products, respectively. The proposed model is evaluated by applying it to four different board data sets. Each data set has between 1500 and 4000 board failures. Our prediction model can make a 36-month (full warranty) reliability prediction of a board with using its field data as short as 3 months. The predicted results from our model and the direct results using full warranty data match well. This demonstrates the accuracy of our model. We also evaluate our change point method by applying it to our board data sets as well as to a well-known heart transplant data set.

Suggested Citation

  • Altun, Mustafa & Comert, Salih Vehbi, 2016. "A change-point based reliability prediction model using field return data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 175-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:156:y:2016:i:c:p:175-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.07.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832016303106
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2016.07.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Mingyang & Liu, Jian, 2016. "Bayesian hazard modeling based on lifetime data with latent heterogeneity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 183-189.
    2. Yang, Duo & He, Zhen & He, Shuguang, 2016. "Warranty claims forecasting based on a general imperfect repair model considering usage rate," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 147-154.
    3. Kaushik Patra & Dipak Dey, 2002. "A General Class of Change Point and Change Curve Modeling for Life Time Data," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 54(3), pages 517-530, September.
    4. Anestis Antoniadis & Irene Gijbels & Brenda Macgibbon, 2000. "Non‐parametric Estimation for the Location of a Change‐point in an Otherwise Smooth Hazard Function under Random Censoring," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 501-519, September.
    5. David Vališ & Libor Žák & Ondřej Pokora, 2015. "Contribution to system failure occurrence prediction and to system remaining useful life estimation based on oil field data," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(1), pages 36-45, February.
    6. Gupta, Sanjib Kumar & De, Soumen & Chatterjee, Aditya, 2014. "Warranty forecasting from incomplete two-dimensional warranty data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Chia-Han Yang & Tao Yuan & Way Kuo & Yue Kuo, 2012. "Non-parametric Bayesian modeling of hazard rate with a change point for nanoelectronic devices," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 496-506.
    8. Sheng-Tsaing Tseng & Nan-Jung Hsu & Yi-Chiao Lin, 2016. "Joint modeling of laboratory and field data with application to warranty prediction for highly reliable products," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 710-719, August.
    9. David Stephens & Martin Crowder, 2004. "Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 53(1), pages 195-217, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Xing & Wang, Huixiong & You, Weijia & Zhang, Manli & Yang, Yuexiang, 2020. "Assessing the reliability of electronic products using customer knowledge discovery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Hu, Chang-Hua & He, Xiao & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Liu, Yang & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2017. "Lifetime prognostics for deteriorating systems with time-varying random jumps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 338-350.
    3. Gupta, Sanjib Kumar & Bhattacharya, Debasis, 2022. "Non-parametric estimation of bivariate reliability from incomplete two-dimensional warranty data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Lin, Kunsong & Chen, Yunxia, 2021. "Analysis of two-dimensional warranty data considering global and local dependence of heterogeneous marginals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Gupta, Sanjib Kumar & Chattopadhyay, Gaurangadeb, 2022. "Early detection of reliability related problems from two-dimensional warranty data considering labour code priority index," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    6. Cai, Xia & Tian, Yubin & Ning, Wei, 2019. "Change-point analysis of the failure mechanisms based on accelerated life tests," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 515-522.
    7. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping, 2021. "An artificial neural network supported stochastic process for degradation modeling and prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    8. Alessandra R. Brazzale & Helmut Küchenhoff & Stefanie Krügel & Tobias S. Schiergens & Heiko Trentzsch & Wolfgang Hartl, 2019. "Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 301-321, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Sanjib Kumar & Chattopadhyay, Gaurangadeb, 2022. "Early detection of reliability related problems from two-dimensional warranty data considering labour code priority index," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Xiaolin Wang & Wei Xie, 2018. "Two-dimensional warranty: A literature review," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(3), pages 284-307, June.
    3. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Hu, Chang-Hua & He, Xiao & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Liu, Yang & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2017. "Lifetime prognostics for deteriorating systems with time-varying random jumps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 338-350.
    4. Lin, Kunsong & Chen, Yunxia, 2021. "Analysis of two-dimensional warranty data considering global and local dependence of heterogeneous marginals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Utkin, Lev V. & Coolen, Frank P.A. & Gurov, Sergey V., 2015. "Imprecise inference for warranty contract analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 31-39.
    6. Alessandra R. Brazzale & Helmut Küchenhoff & Stefanie Krügel & Tobias S. Schiergens & Heiko Trentzsch & Wolfgang Hartl, 2019. "Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 301-321, April.
    7. Zhao, Xiujie & He, Shuguang & Xie, Min, 2018. "Utilizing experimental degradation data for warranty cost optimization under imperfect repair," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 108-119.
    8. Gupta, Sanjib Kumar & Bhattacharya, Debasis, 2022. "Non-parametric estimation of bivariate reliability from incomplete two-dimensional warranty data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Kumar Gupta, Sanjib & De, Soumen & Chatterjee, Aditya, 2017. "Some reliability issues for incomplete two-dimensional warranty claims data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 64-77.
    10. Wang, Xiaolin & Li, Lishuai & Xie, Min, 2020. "An unpunctual preventive maintenance policy under two-dimensional warranty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 304-318.
    11. Chehade, Abdallah & Savargaonkar, Mayuresh & Krivtsov, Vasiliy, 2022. "Conditional Gaussian mixture model for warranty claims forecasting," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    12. Dai, Anshu & Wang, Xin & Li, Yu & Li, Ting & He, Shuguang, 2023. "Design of a performance-based warranty policy with replacement–repair strategy and cumulative cost threshold," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    13. Rezgar Zaki & Abbas Barabadi & Javad Barabady & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou, 2022. "Observed and unobserved heterogeneity in failure data analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(1), pages 194-207, February.
    14. Reza Barabadi & Mohammad Ataei & Reza Khalokakaie & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou, 2021. "Spare-part management in a heterogeneous environment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, March.
    15. Shokouhyar, Sajjad & Ahmadi, Sadra & Ashrafzadeh, Mahdi, 2021. "Promoting a novel method for warranty claim prediction based on social network data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    16. Maxim S. Finkelstein, 2003. "Modeling failure (mortality) rate with a change point," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-041, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Li, Mingyang & Meng, Hongdao & Zhang, Qingpeng, 2017. "A nonparametric Bayesian modeling approach for heterogeneous lifetime data with covariates," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 95-104.
    18. Li, Xingyu & Krivtsov, Vasiliy & Arora, Karunesh, 2022. "Attention-based deep survival model for time series data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    19. Chun Su & Xiaolin Wang, 2016. "Modeling flexible two-dimensional warranty contracts for used products considering reliability improvement actions," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(2), pages 237-247, April.
    20. Lijun Shang & Guojun Shang & Qingan Qiu, 2022. "A Bivariate Post-Warranty Maintenance Model for the Product under a 2D Warranty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:156:y:2016:i:c:p:175-184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.