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Warranty claims forecasting based on a general imperfect repair model considering usage rate

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  • Yang, Duo
  • He, Zhen
  • He, Shuguang

Abstract

Because manufacturers of products sold with any type of warranty incur additional costs from servicing customer warranty claims, accurately forecasting the number of warranty claims has become increasingly important to manufacturers. Under the assumption of Weibull distributed time to failure, we propose two models based on a generalised renewal process that consider product usage rate to forecast the number of failures of products sold with a two-dimensional warranty policy. The accelerated failure time model is used to investigate the effects of the product usage rate on system reliability. The maximum likelihood estimation combined with a nonlinear constrained programming method is used to estimate the parameters of the proposed models. We conduct data experiments based on both simulation and real data collected from an excavator manufacturer in China to test the performance of the proposed models. The results indicate that the models incorporating a variable usage rate more accurately forecast the number of failures than those models based on a nominal usage rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Duo & He, Zhen & He, Shuguang, 2016. "Warranty claims forecasting based on a general imperfect repair model considering usage rate," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 147-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:147-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.09.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Syamsundar, A. & Naikan, V.N.A. & Wu, Shaomin, 2020. "Alternative scales in reliability models for a repairable system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
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    9. Dai, Anshu & Wang, Xin & Li, Yu & Li, Ting & He, Shuguang, 2023. "Design of a performance-based warranty policy with replacement–repair strategy and cumulative cost threshold," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    10. Gupta, Sanjib Kumar & Chattopadhyay, Gaurangadeb, 2022. "Early detection of reliability related problems from two-dimensional warranty data considering labour code priority index," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    11. Moura, Márcio das Chagas & Santana, João Mateus & Droguett, Enrique López & Lins, Isis Didier & Guedes, Bruno Nunes, 2017. "Analysis of extended warranties for medical equipment: A Stackelberg game model using priority queues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 338-354.
    12. Xiaolin Wang & Wei Xie, 2018. "Two-dimensional warranty: A literature review," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(3), pages 284-307, June.
    13. Kumar Gupta, Sanjib & De, Soumen & Chatterjee, Aditya, 2017. "Some reliability issues for incomplete two-dimensional warranty claims data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 64-77.
    14. Shokouhyar, Sajjad & Ahmadi, Sadra & Ashrafzadeh, Mahdi, 2021. "Promoting a novel method for warranty claim prediction based on social network data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    15. Safaei, Fatemeh & Taghipour, Sharareh, 2022. "Optimal preventive maintenance for repairable products with three types of failures sold under a renewable hybrid FRW/PRW policy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    16. Zhao, Xiujie & Liu, Bin & Xu, Jianyu & Wang, Xiao-Lin, 2023. "Imperfect maintenance policies for warranted products under stochastic performance degradation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 150-165.
    17. Dai, Anshu & Wei, Guanzhou & Wang, Dongfan & He, Zhen & He, Shuguang, 2021. "The opportunity study of PM strategy for second-hand products sold with a two-dimensional warranty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

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