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A hybrid load flow and event driven simulation approach to multi-state system reliability evaluation

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  • George-Williams, Hindolo
  • Patelli, Edoardo

Abstract

Structural complexity of systems, coupled with their multi-state characteristics, renders their reliability and availability evaluation difficult. Notwithstanding the emergence of various techniques dedicated to complex multi-state system analysis, simulation remains the only approach applicable to realistic systems. However, most simulation algorithms are either system specific or limited to simple systems since they require enumerating all possible system states, defining the cut-sets associated with each state and monitoring their occurrence. In addition to being extremely tedious for large complex systems, state enumeration and cut-set definition require a detailed understanding of the system׳s failure mechanism. In this paper, a simple and generally applicable simulation approach, enhanced for multi-state systems of any topology is presented. Here, each component is defined as a Semi-Markov stochastic process and via discrete-event simulation, the operation of the system is mimicked. The principles of flow conservation are invoked to determine flow across the system for every performance level change of its components using the interior-point algorithm. This eliminates the need for cut-set definition and overcomes the limitations of existing techniques. The methodology can also be exploited to account for effects of transmission efficiency and loading restrictions of components on system reliability and performance. The principles and algorithms developed are applied to two numerical examples to demonstrate their applicability.

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  • George-Williams, Hindolo & Patelli, Edoardo, 2016. "A hybrid load flow and event driven simulation approach to multi-state system reliability evaluation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 351-367.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:152:y:2016:i:c:p:351-367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.04.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Xianzhen & Coolen, Frank P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, Tahani, 2019. "A heuristic survival signature based approach for reliability-redundancy allocation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 511-517.
    2. Lu, Zhong & Liang, Xihui & Zuo, Ming J. & Zhou, Jia, 2017. "Markov process based time limited dispatch analysis with constraints of both dispatch reliability and average safety levels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 84-94.
    3. Gregory Levitin & Heping Jia & Yi Ding & Yonghua Song, 2017. "1-out-of-N multi-state standby systems with state-dependent random replacement times," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(6), pages 750-760, December.
    4. Wu, Bei & Cui, Lirong & Fang, Chen, 2019. "Reliability analysis of semi-Markov systems with restriction on transition times," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Chang, Ping-Chen, 2022. "MC-based simulation approach for two-terminal multi-state network reliability evaluation without knowing d-MCs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. Yeh, Wei-Chang & Chu, Ta-Chung, 2018. "A novel multi-distribution multi-state flow network and its reliability optimization problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 209-217.
    7. George-Williams, H. & Wade, N. & Carpenter, R.N., 2022. "A probabilistic framework for the techno-economic assessment of smart energy hubs for electric vehicle charging," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Hindolo George-Williams & Geng Feng & Frank PA Coolen & Michael Beer & Edoardo Patelli, 2019. "Extending the survival signature paradigm to complex systems with non-repairable dependent failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 505-519, August.
    9. Peng, Rui & Xiao, Hui & Liu, Hanlin, 2017. "Reliability of multi-state systems with a performance sharing group of limited size," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 164-170.
    10. George-Williams, Hindolo & Patelli, Edoardo, 2017. "Efficient availability assessment of reconfigurable multi-state systems with interdependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 431-444.
    11. Patelli, Edoardo & Feng, Geng & Coolen, Frank P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, Tahani, 2017. "Simulation methods for system reliability using the survival signature," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 327-337.

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