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Human reliability under sleep deprivation: Derivation of performance shaping factor multipliers from empirical data

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  • Griffith, Candice D.
  • Mahadevan, Sankaran

Abstract

This paper develops a probabilistic approach that could use empirical data to derive values of performance shaping factor (PSF) multipliers for use in quantitative human reliability analysis (HRA). The proposed approach is illustrated with data on sleep deprivation effects on performance. A review of existing HRA methods reveals that sleep deprivation is not explicitly included at present, and expert opinion is frequently used to inform HRA model multipliers. In this paper, quantitative data from empirical studies regarding the effect of continuous hours of wakefulness on performance measures (reaction time, accuracy, and number of lapses) are used to develop a method to derive PSF multiplier values for sleep deprivation, in the context of the SPAR-H model. Data is extracted from the identified studies according to the meta-analysis research synthesis method and used to investigate performance trends and error probabilities. The error probabilities in test and control conditions are compared, and the resulting probability ratios are suggested for use in informing the selection of PSF multipliers in HRA methods. Although illustrated for sleep deprivation, the proposed methodology is general, and can be applied to other performance shaping factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Griffith, Candice D. & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2015. "Human reliability under sleep deprivation: Derivation of performance shaping factor multipliers from empirical data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 23-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:144:y:2015:i:c:p:23-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Morais, Caroline & Estrada-Lugo, Hector Diego & Tolo, Silvia & Jacques, Tiago & Moura, Raphael & Beer, Michael & Patelli, Edoardo, 2022. "Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    3. Porthin, Markus & Liinasuo, Marja & Kling, Terhi, 2020. "Effects of digitalization of nuclear power plant control rooms on human reliability analysis – A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    4. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Lau, Nathan & Weinger, Matthew B., 2020. "Multi-source information fusion to assess control room operator performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Rasmussen, Martin & Laumann, Karin, 2020. "The evaluation of fatigue as a performance shaping factor in the Petro-HRA method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    6. Mitra Hannani & Marc Bascompta & Mojtaba Gerami Sabzevar & Hesam Dehghani & Ali Asghar Khajevandi, 2023. "Causal Analysis of Safety Risk Perception of Iranian Coal Mining Workers Using Fuzzy Delphi and DEMATEL," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Wenjun Zhang & Xiangkun Meng & Xue Yang & Hongguang Lyu & Xiang-Yu Zhou & Qingwu Wang, 2022. "A Practical Risk-Based Model for Early Warning of Seafarer Errors Using Integrated Bayesian Network and SPAR-H," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

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