IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v142y2015icp433-443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Topological risk mapping of runway overruns: A probabilistic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Trucco, Paolo
  • De Ambroggi, Massimiliano
  • Chiara Leva, Maria

Abstract

The paper presents a topological risk mapping for aircraft overruns. The proposed procedure is based on the study published in 2008 by Hall et al. (Analysis of aircraft overruns and undershoots for runway safety areas. Airport Cooperative Research Program. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board; 2008). In that study the authors performed an analysis of aircraft overruns and undershoots for runway safety areas proposing the ACRP hazard probability model. In the present study the model was integrated into a two-step Monte Carlo simulation procedure to assess the risk of overrun accidents and to provide a topological risk map for a specific airport area. The model was modified to utilize traffic-related and weather-related factors described by statistical distributions of historical data of the airport under analysis. The probability distribution of overrun events was then combined with the Longitudinal and Lateral Location models Hall et al. (Analysis of aircraft overruns and undershoots for runway safety areas. Airport Cooperative Research Program. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board; 2008) to obtain a two-dimensional grid assessing the probability of each area to be the end point of a runway overrun. The expected kinetic energy of the aircraft in a given point of the grid is used as severity index. The procedure is suitable for generalisation and it allows a more detailed planning of Airport Safety Areas (ASA), improving the correct implementation of ICAO recommendations. Results are also useful for land planning and structural analyses in airport areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Trucco, Paolo & De Ambroggi, Massimiliano & Chiara Leva, Maria, 2015. "Topological risk mapping of runway overruns: A probabilistic approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 433-443.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:433-443
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832015001817
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2015.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rogerson, Ellen C. & Lambert, James H., 2012. "Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 22-34.
    2. Kirkland, I. & Caves, R.E. & Hirst, M. & Pitfield, D.E., 2003. "The normalisation of aircraft overrun accident data," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 333-341.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sameeraű Galagedera & Varuna Adikariwattage & H. R. Pasindu, 2021. "Evaluation of Rapid Exit Locations Based on Veer-Off Risk for Landing Aircraft," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francis, Graham & Humphreys, Ian & Fry, Jackie, 2005. "The nature and prevalence of the use of performance measurement techniques by airlines," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 207-217.
    2. Skorupski, Jacek, 2015. "The risk of an air accident as a result of a serious incident of the hybrid type," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 37-52.
    3. Sai Ho Chung & Hoi Lam Ma & Hing Kai Chan, 2017. "Cascading Delay Risk of Airline Workforce Deployments with Crew Pairing and Schedule Optimization," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1443-1458, August.
    4. Wang, Tai-Ran & Pedroni, Nicola & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Identification of protective actions to reduce the vulnerability of safety-critical systems to malevolent acts: A sensitivity-based decision-making approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 9-18.
    5. T. R. Wang & N. Pedroni & E. Zio & V. Mousseau, 2020. "Identification of Protective Actions to Reduce the Vulnerability of Safety‐Critical Systems to Malevolent Intentional Acts: An Optimization‐Based Decision‐Making Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 565-587, March.
    6. Dustin C.S. Wagner & Kash Barker, 2014. "Statistical methods for modeling the risk of runway excursions," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 885-901, August.
    7. Almutairi, Ayedh & Collier, Zachary A. & Hendrickson, Daniel & Palma-Oliveira, José M. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2019. "Stakeholder mapping and disruption scenarios with application to resilience of a container port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 219-232.
    8. Ellen C. Rogerson & James H. Lambert & Alexander F. Johns, 2013. "Runway safety program evaluation with uncertainties of benefits and costs," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 523-539, May.
    9. Wang, Lei & Wu, Changxu & Sun, Ruishan, 2014. "An analysis of flight Quick Access Recorder (QAR) data and its applications in preventing landing incidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 86-96.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:433-443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.