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The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty

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  • Lovreglio, Ruggiero
  • Ronchi, Enrico
  • Borri, Dino

Abstract

Both experimental and simulation data on fire evacuation are influenced by a component of uncertainty caused by the impact of the unexplained variance in human behaviour, namely behavioural uncertainty (BU). Evacuation model validation studies should include the study of this type of uncertainty during the comparison of experiments and simulation results. An evacuation model validation procedure is introduced in this paper to study the impact of BU. This methodology is presented through a case study for the comparison between repeated experimental data and simulation results produced by FDS+Evac, an evacuation model for the simulation of human behaviour in fire, which makes use of distribution laws.

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  • Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Ronchi, Enrico & Borri, Dino, 2014. "The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 166-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:131:y:2014:i:c:p:166-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.07.007
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    1. Liu, Yu & Wang, Weijie & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Li, Yanfeng & Yang, Yuanjian, 2014. "A new simulation model for assessing aircraft emergency evacuation considering passenger physical characteristics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 187-197.
    2. Guo, Ren-Yong & Huang, Hai-Jun & Wong, S.C., 2012. "Route choice in pedestrian evacuation under conditions of good and zero visibility: Experimental and simulation results," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 669-686.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kinateder, Max & Warren, William H., 2021. "Exit choice during evacuation is influenced by both the size and proportion of the egressing crowd," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    3. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Fonzone, Achille & dell’Olio, Luigi, 2016. "A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 59-75.
    4. Wang, Xinjian & Liu, Zhengjiang & Loughney, Sean & Yang, Zaili & Wang, Yanfu & Wang, Jin, 2022. "Numerical analysis and staircase layout optimisation for a Ro-Ro passenger ship during emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Spearpoint, Michael & Girault, Mathilde, 2019. "The impact of sampling methods on evacuation model convergence and egress time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 24-34.
    6. Fang, Zhi-Ming & Lv, Wei & Jiang, Li-Xue & Xu, Qing-Feng & Song, Wei-Guo, 2016. "Modeling and assessment of civil aircraft evacuation based on finer-grid," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 102-112.
    7. Xie, Qimiao & Wang, Jinhui & Lu, Shouxiang & Hensen, Jan L.M., 2016. "An optimization method for the distance between exits of buildings considering uncertainties based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 188-196.
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    9. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Ronchi, Enrico & Nilsson, Daniel, 2015. "Calibrating floor field cellular automaton models for pedestrian dynamics by using likelihood function optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 308-320.
    10. Teichmann, Dusan & Dorda, Michal & Sousek, Radovan, 2021. "Creation of preventive mass evacuation plan with the use of public transport," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
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    12. Kayvan Aghabayk & Alireza Soltani & Nirajan Shiwakoti, 2022. "Investigating Pedestrians’ Exit Choice with Incident Location Awareness in an Emergency in a Multi-Level Shopping Complex," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.

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