IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reecon/v78y2024i4s1090944324000462.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural versus artificial herd immunity: Is vaccine research investment always optimal?

Author

Listed:
  • Bosi, Stefano
  • Camacho, Carmen
  • Desmarchelier, David

Abstract

Under the threat of a rapid expanding virus like the 2020 COVID-19, policy-makers need to decide relatively fast whether and under which conditions to invest in a vaccine, and eventually adopt other protective measures like social distancing or lockdowns, or to wait for natural herd immunity. Taking into account that vaccines take time to be fully developed and effective, this paper considers a unified framework at the crossroad between economics and epidemiology to study optimal public spending in medical research to obtain a vaccine against an infectious disease evolving according to a SIR dynamics. We prove that developed economies always invest in the search of a vaccine. The more individuals care about consumption, the more they actually reduce their current consumption and the more they invest in the vaccine research program to recover their consumption potential at the earliest. Our model would only recommend economies with very poor technology to restrain from investment and wait for herd immunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosi, Stefano & Camacho, Carmen & Desmarchelier, David, 2024. "Natural versus artificial herd immunity: Is vaccine research investment always optimal?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:78:y:2024:i:4:s1090944324000462
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.100982
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944324000462
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rie.2024.100982?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ewen Callaway, 2020. "The race for coronavirus vaccines: a graphical guide," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7805), pages 576-577, April.
    2. Marion Davin & Mouez Fodha & Thomas Seegmuller, 2023. "Environment, public debt, and epidemics," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(6), pages 1270-1303, December.
    3. Barrett, Scott & Hoel, Michael, 2007. "Optimal disease eradication," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 627-652, October.
    4. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    5. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Galeotti & Brian W. Rogers, 2013. "Strategic Immunization and Group Structure," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, May.
    2. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle, 2021. "Optimal prevention and elimination of infectious diseases," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Bosi, Stefano & Camacho, Carmen & Desmarchelier, David, 2021. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," PSE Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    5. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio & Torrente, Maria-Laura, 2022. "Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 667, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    6. Stéphane Mechoulan, 2007. "Market structure and communicable diseases," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 468-492, May.
    7. repec:esx:essedp:707 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    9. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Eric Nævdal, 2012. "Fighting Transient Epidemics—Optimal Vaccination Schedules Before And After An Outbreak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1456-1476, December.
    11. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Infection, Acquired Immunity and Externalities in Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2024. "Wealth in the Quadratic Loss Function of the Ramsey Malinvaud Cass Koopmans Model of Optimal Savings," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 134(3), pages 371-390.
    14. Gordon Cordina, 2004. "Economic Vulnerability And Economic Growth: Some Results From A Neo-Classical Growth Modelling Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 21-39, December.
    15. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    16. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    17. Paulo B. Brito, 2022. "The dynamics of growth and distribution in a spatially heterogeneous world," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(3), pages 311-350, September.
    18. George Halkos & Iacovos Psarianos, 2016. "Exploring the effect of including the environment in the neoclassical growth model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(3), pages 339-358, July.
    19. I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2006. "Saglik ile Buyume," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 83-91.
    20. Luca Gori & Piero Manfredi & Simone Marsiglio & Mauro Sodini, 2023. "A parsimonious model of optimal social distancing and vaccination during an outbreak," Discussion Papers 2023/292, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    21. ?gel de la Fuente, "undated". "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vaccine research; SIR model; Ramsey model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:78:y:2024:i:4:s1090944324000462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.