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Using Payroll Tax Variation to Unpack the Black Box of Firm-Level Production

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  • Youssef Benzarti
  • Jarkko Harju

Abstract

This paper uses quasi-experimental variation in payroll taxes to estimate their incidence and investigate how firms use their input factors. We find that higher payroll tax rates lead to large employment responses and have no effects on employee earnings. As payroll taxes increase, firms substitute away from low-skilled, routine and manual workers towards more productive workers and also reduce investments. Our results imply that, contrary to the canonical tax incidence model, firm-level production and input factor choices are affected by payroll taxes.

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  • Youssef Benzarti & Jarkko Harju, 2020. "Using Payroll Tax Variation to Unpack the Black Box of Firm-Level Production," NBER Working Papers 26640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26640
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    2. Sophie Cottet, 2020. "Payroll Tax Reductions for Minimum Wage Workers: Relative Labor Cost or Cash Windfall Effects?," Working Papers halshs-03010943, HAL.
    3. E. Mark Curtis & Daniel G. Garrett & Eric C. Ohrn & Kevin A. Roberts & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2021. "Capital Investment and Labor Demand," NBER Working Papers 29485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kim, Jinyoung & Kim, Seonghoon & Koh, Kanghyock, 2022. "Labor market institutions and the incidence of payroll taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Benzarti, Youssef & Harju, Jarkko, 2021. "Can payroll tax cuts help firms during recessions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Bart Cockx & Sam Desiere, 2023. "Labour costs and the decision to hire the first employee," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1071, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Wu, Huiwan, 2024. "How does enforcement of social insurance law minimize income gaps within firms: From a perspective of worker bargaining power," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    8. Sophie Cottet, 2024. "Payroll Tax Reductions for Minimum Wage Workers: Relative Labor Cost or Cash Windfall Effects?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11076, CESifo.
    9. Lerche, Adrian, 2022. "Investment Tax Credits and the Response of Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 15668, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    12. De Haas, Ralph & Sterk, Vincent & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2022. "Start-up types and macroeconomic performance in Europe," Bank of England working papers 986, Bank of England.
    13. Sophie Cottet, 2020. "Payroll Tax Reductions for Minimum Wage Workers: Relative Labor Cost or Cash Windfall Effects?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03010943, HAL.
    14. Audrey Guo, 2023. "Payroll Tax Incidence: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance," Papers 2304.05605, arXiv.org.
    15. Deng, Guoying & Du, Pengcheng & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Xu, Shu, 2024. "Corporate taxes and labor market informality evidence from China," IFPRI discussion papers 2244, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Enrico Rubolino, 2022. "Taxing the Gender Gap: Labor Market Effects of a Payroll Tax Cut for Women in Italy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    17. Wenjing Bi & Yifei Li & Xiaotao Zhang & Tenglong Zhong, 2024. "Labor protection and enterprise digital transformation: A quasi‐natural experiment based on the enforcement of Social Insurance Law in China," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 708-733, July.
    18. Yao, Wenyun & Lu, Feier & Wang, Yuting & Song, Zilong, 2023. "Social insurance contributions and firms' debt concentration choice: A quasi-natural experiment based on the implementation of China's social insurance law," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Jin, Gang & Zhang, Jiwen & Ye, Yongwei & Yao, Shiqi & Song, Jingxiang, 2024. "Social insurance law and firm markup in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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