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Fastest marathon times achievable based on extreme value statistics

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  • Kebe, Malick
  • Nadarajah, Saralees

Abstract

Marathons are one of the ultimate challenges of human endeavor. In this paper, we apply extreme value statistics to predict fastest marathon times achievable for ten marathons around the world and for both men and women. We concentrate on the theoretical minimum time for each gender at each venue, irrespective of who runs there. Thus, we measure the potential of each marathon, not the actual performance of the runners.

Suggested Citation

  • Kebe, Malick & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2024. "Fastest marathon times achievable based on extreme value statistics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 652(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:652:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124005788
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.130069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John H. J. Einmahl & Sander G. W. R. Smeets, 2011. "Ultimate 100‐m world records through extreme‐value theory," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 32-42, February.
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