IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v594y2022ics0378437122001091.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning hidden Markov models with unknown number of states

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng, Jing
  • Yu, Dongjie
  • Zhu, Bin
  • Tong, Changqing

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel method for learning hidden Markov models (HMMs) with an unknown number of states based on a valuable feature set. The feature set is built using the hitting times of HMMs. Based on the feature set, we obtain a parameter estimation for HMMs by SVD and the clustering algorithm. The advantages of the proposed method are that it can accurately and automatically identify the number of hidden states, it is robust to misspecified emission distributions, it is less sensitive to initialization, and is asymptotically consistent. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method performs better than other methods when the observed time series is long enough.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Jing & Yu, Dongjie & Zhu, Bin & Tong, Changqing, 2022. "Learning hidden Markov models with unknown number of states," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 594(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:594:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122001091
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437122001091
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zheng, Jing & Huang, Jiafang & Tong, Changqing, 2019. "The order estimation for hidden Markov models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 527(C).
    2. Teh, Yee Whye & Jordan, Michael I. & Beal, Matthew J. & Blei, David M., 2006. "Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1566-1581, December.
    3. Andersson, Sofia & Rydén, Tobias & Johansson, Rolf, 2003. "Linear optimal prediction and innovations representations of hidden Markov models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 131-149, November.
    4. Mary Hardy, 2001. "A Regime-Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 41-53.
    5. Hosseinzadeh Aghdam, Mehdi, 2019. "Context-aware recommender systems using hierarchical hidden Markov model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 518(C), pages 89-98.
    6. C. Yau & O. Papaspiliopoulos & G. O. Roberts & C. Holmes, 2011. "Bayesian non‐parametric hidden Markov models with applications in genomics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 37-57, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hartman, Brian M. & Heaton, Matthew J., 2011. "Accounting for regime and parameter uncertainty in regime-switching models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 429-437.
    2. Wang, Jiangzhou & Cui, Tingting & Zhu, Wensheng & Wang, Pengfei, 2023. "Covariate-modulated large-scale multiple testing under dependence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    3. Michelle Dietzen & Haoran Zhai & Olivia Lucas & Oriol Pich & Christopher Barrington & Wei-Ting Lu & Sophia Ward & Yanping Guo & Robert E. Hynds & Simone Zaccaria & Charles Swanton & Nicholas McGranaha, 2024. "Replication timing alterations are associated with mutation acquisition during breast and lung cancer evolution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Redivo, Edoardo & Nguyen, Hien D. & Gupta, Mayetri, 2020. "Bayesian clustering of skewed and multimodal data using geometric skewed normal distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster, 2012. "On the stick–breaking representation of normalized inverse Gaussian priors," DEM Working Papers Series 008, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Gao, Huan & Mamon, Rogemar & Liu, Xiaoming & Tenyakov, Anton, 2015. "Mortality modelling with regime-switching for the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 108-120.
    7. Kobor, Adam & Szekely, Istvan P., 2004. "Foreign exchange market volatility in EU accession countries in the run-up to Euro adoption: weathering uncharted waters," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 337-352, December.
    8. Parvin Ahmadi & Iman Gholampour & Mahmoud Tabandeh, 2018. "Cluster-based sparse topical coding for topic mining and document clustering," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 12(3), pages 537-558, September.
    9. Jeffrey L. Furman & Florenta Teodoridis, 2020. "Automation, Research Technology, and Researchers’ Trajectories: Evidence from Computer Science and Electrical Engineering," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 330-354, March.
    10. Alexandre Carbonneau & Fr'ed'eric Godin, 2021. "Deep equal risk pricing of financial derivatives with non-translation invariant risk measures," Papers 2107.11340, arXiv.org.
    11. Shu-Ping Shi & Yong Song, 2012. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper series 26_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    12. Shin-Yun Wang & Ming-Che Chuang & Shih-Kuei Lin & So-De Shyu, 2021. "Option pricing under stock market cycles with jump risks: evidence from the S&P 500 index," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 25-51, January.
    13. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2023. "European option pricing with market frictions, regime switches and model uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 233-250.
    14. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M. & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "Infinite Markov pooling of predictive distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 302-321.
    15. Laura Liu, 2017. "Density Forecasts in Panel Models: A semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Apr 2017.
    16. Battulga Gankhuu, 2021. "Equity-Linked Life Insurances on Maximum of Several Assets," Papers 2111.04038, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    17. Gan, Guojun & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2015. "Valuation of large variable annuity portfolios under nested simulation: A functional data approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 138-150.
    18. Gustaf Bellstam & Sanjai Bhagat & J. Anthony Cookson, 2021. "A Text-Based Analysis of Corporate Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4004-4031, July.
    19. Liverani, Silvia & Hastie, David I. & Azizi, Lamiae & Papathomas, Michail & Richardson, Sylvia, 2015. "PReMiuM: An R Package for Profile Regression Mixture Models Using Dirichlet Processes," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 64(i07).
    20. Runhuan Feng & Peng Li, 2021. "Sample Recycling Method -- A New Approach to Efficient Nested Monte Carlo Simulations," Papers 2106.06028, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:594:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122001091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.