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An analysis of contact tracing protocol in an over-dispersed SEIQR Covid-like disease

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  • Elías, L. Llamazares
  • Elías, S. Llamazares
  • del Rey, A. Martín

Abstract

The aim of this work is to study an over-dispersed SEIQR infectious disease and obtain optimal methods of contact tracing. A prototypical example of such a disease is that of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In consequence, this study is immediately applicable to the current health crisis. In this paper, we introduce both a discrete and continuous model for various modes of contact tracing. From the continuous model, we derive a basic reproductive number and study the stability of the equilibrium points. We also implement the continuous and discrete models numerically and further analyze the effectiveness of different types of contact tracing and their cost on society. Additionally, through these simulations, we also study the effect that various parameters of the disease have on its evolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Elías, L. Llamazares & Elías, S. Llamazares & del Rey, A. Martín, 2022. "An analysis of contact tracing protocol in an over-dispersed SEIQR Covid-like disease," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 590(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:590:y:2022:i:c:s0378437121009493
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.126754
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William J. Bradshaw & Ethan C. Alley & Jonathan H. Huggins & Alun L. Lloyd & Kevin M. Esvelt, 2021. "Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. J. O. Lloyd-Smith & S. J. Schreiber & P. E. Kopp & W. M. Getz, 2005. "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 355-359, November.
    3. Liang Wang & Xavier Didelot & Jing Yang & Gary Wong & Yi Shi & Wenjun Liu & George F. Gao & Yuhai Bi, 2020. "Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-6, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Utsumi, Shinobu & Arefin, Md. Rajib & Tatsukawa, Yuichi & Tanimoto, Jun, 2022. "How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Prem Kumar, R. & Santra, P.K. & Mahapatra, G.S., 2023. "Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 741-766.

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