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Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase

Author

Listed:
  • Liang Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xavier Didelot

    (University of Warwick)

  • Jing Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Gary Wong

    (Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Université Laval)

  • Yi Shi

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wenjun Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • George F. Gao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yuhai Bi

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Second Hospital Affiliated to Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen Third People’s Hospital)

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Wang & Xavier Didelot & Jing Yang & Gary Wong & Yi Shi & Wenjun Liu & George F. Gao & Yuhai Bi, 2020. "Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-6, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18836-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Arnab K Ghosh & Sara Venkatraman & Evgeniya Reshetnyak & Mangala Rajan & Anjile An & John K Chae & Mark A Unruh & David Abramson & Charles DiMaggio & Nathaniel Hupert, 2022. "Association between city-wide lockdown and COVID-19 hospitalization rates in multigenerational households in New York City," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Damon J A Toth & Alexander B Beams & Lindsay T Keegan & Yue Zhang & Tom Greene & Brian Orleans & Nathan Seegert & Adam Looney & Stephen C Alder & Matthew H Samore, 2021. "High variability in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within households and implications for control," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Terefe, Y.A. & Njagarah, J.B.H. & Kassa, S.M., 2023. "Effect of cross-border migration on the healthcare system of a destination community: Insights from mathematical modelling of COVID-19 in a developing country," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 444-479.
    5. Aleksandar Radic & Michael Lück & Amr Al-Ansi & Bee-Lia Chua & Sabrina Seeler & António Raposo & Jinkyung Jenny Kim & Heesup Han, 2021. "To Dine, or Not to Dine on a Cruise Ship in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Tripartite Approach towards an Understanding of Behavioral Intentions among Female Passengers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Elías, L. Llamazares & Elías, S. Llamazares & del Rey, A. Martín, 2022. "An analysis of contact tracing protocol in an over-dispersed SEIQR Covid-like disease," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 590(C).

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