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A new kinetic model to discuss the control of panic spreading in emergency

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Guanghua
  • Shen, Huizhang
  • Chen, Guangming
  • Ye, Teng
  • Tang, Xiangbin
  • Kerr, Naphtali

Abstract

Individual panic behavior during an emergency is contagious. It often leads to collective panic behavior, which can be disruptive and even disastrous if handled incorrectly. In this paper, a novel kinetic model is developed to describe the dynamics of panic spreading in a real emergency. The global dynamics of the proposed model are analyzed by using the method of Lyapunov function and the Poincarè–Bendixson property, and the obtained theoretical results are numerically validated. The Runge–Kutta method is used for numerical simulations, and these simulations are used to investigate the impact of corresponding management strategies on the containment of individual panic behavior. Meanwhile, the implications of these simulation results are discussed with the “2011 Xiangshui chemical explosion rumor” event. Finally, some recommendations for emergency management agencies are put forward by us to reduce individual panic behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Guanghua & Shen, Huizhang & Chen, Guangming & Ye, Teng & Tang, Xiangbin & Kerr, Naphtali, 2015. "A new kinetic model to discuss the control of panic spreading in emergency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 345-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:417:y:2015:i:c:p:345-357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dirk Helbing & Illés Farkas & Tamás Vicsek, 2000. "Simulating dynamical features of escape panic," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6803), pages 487-490, September.
    2. Soyoung Kim & Sunghyun Henry Kim, 2007. "Financial Panic and Exchange Rate Overshooting during Currency Crises," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 71-89.
    3. Zhao, Laijun & Cui, Hongxin & Qiu, Xiaoyan & Wang, Xiaoli & Wang, Jiajia, 2013. "SIR rumor spreading model in the new media age," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 995-1003.
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