IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v417y2015icp345-357.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new kinetic model to discuss the control of panic spreading in emergency

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Guanghua
  • Shen, Huizhang
  • Chen, Guangming
  • Ye, Teng
  • Tang, Xiangbin
  • Kerr, Naphtali

Abstract

Individual panic behavior during an emergency is contagious. It often leads to collective panic behavior, which can be disruptive and even disastrous if handled incorrectly. In this paper, a novel kinetic model is developed to describe the dynamics of panic spreading in a real emergency. The global dynamics of the proposed model are analyzed by using the method of Lyapunov function and the Poincarè–Bendixson property, and the obtained theoretical results are numerically validated. The Runge–Kutta method is used for numerical simulations, and these simulations are used to investigate the impact of corresponding management strategies on the containment of individual panic behavior. Meanwhile, the implications of these simulation results are discussed with the “2011 Xiangshui chemical explosion rumor” event. Finally, some recommendations for emergency management agencies are put forward by us to reduce individual panic behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Guanghua & Shen, Huizhang & Chen, Guangming & Ye, Teng & Tang, Xiangbin & Kerr, Naphtali, 2015. "A new kinetic model to discuss the control of panic spreading in emergency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 345-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:417:y:2015:i:c:p:345-357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437114008231
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.055?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk Helbing & Illés Farkas & Tamás Vicsek, 2000. "Simulating dynamical features of escape panic," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6803), pages 487-490, September.
    2. Zhao, Laijun & Cui, Hongxin & Qiu, Xiaoyan & Wang, Xiaoli & Wang, Jiajia, 2013. "SIR rumor spreading model in the new media age," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 995-1003.
    3. Soyoung Kim & Sunghyun Henry Kim, 2007. "Financial Panic and Exchange Rate Overshooting during Currency Crises," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 71-89.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fu, Libi & Song, Weiguo & Lv, Wei & Lo, Siuming, 2014. "Simulation of emotional contagion using modified SIR model: A cellular automaton approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 380-391.
    2. Tian, Yong & Ding, Xuejun, 2019. "Rumor spreading model with considering debunking behavior in emergencies," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 363(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Stock, Eduardo Velasco & da Silva, Roberto, 2023. "Lattice gas model to describe a nightclub dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Li, Dandan & Ma, Jing, 2017. "How the government’s punishment and individual’s sensitivity affect the rumor spreading in online social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 284-292.
    5. Varas, A. & Cornejo, M.D. & Mainemer, D. & Toledo, B. & Rogan, J. & Muñoz, V. & Valdivia, J.A., 2007. "Cellular automaton model for evacuation process with obstacles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(2), pages 631-642.
    6. De Martino, Giuseppe & Spina, Serena, 2015. "Exploiting the time-dynamics of news diffusion on the Internet through a generalized Susceptible–Infected model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 634-644.
    7. Hosni, Adil Imad Eddine & Li, Kan & Ahmad, Sadique, 2020. "Analysis of the impact of online social networks addiction on the propagation of rumors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    8. Murilo S Baptista & Hai-Peng Ren & Johen C M Swarts & Rodrigo Carareto & Henk Nijmeijer & Celso Grebogi, 2012. "Collective Almost Synchronisation in Complex Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-11, November.
    9. Xianing Wang & Zhan Zhang & Ying Wang & Jun Yang & Linjun Lu, 2022. "A Study on Safety Evaluation of Pedestrian Flows Based on Partial Impact Dynamics by Real-Time Data in Subway Stations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Chen, Changkun & Sun, Huakai & Lei, Peng & Zhao, Dongyue & Shi, Congling, 2021. "An extended model for crowd evacuation considering pedestrian panic in artificial attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
    11. Michael Batty & Jake Desyllas & Elspeth Duxbury, 2003. "Safety in Numbers? Modelling Crowds and Designing Control for the Notting Hill Carnival," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(8), pages 1573-1590, July.
    12. Ma, Jian & Song, Wei-guo & Zhang, Jun & Lo, Siu-ming & Liao, Guang-xuan, 2010. "k-Nearest-Neighbor interaction induced self-organized pedestrian counter flow," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(10), pages 2101-2117.
    13. Jia, Pingqi & Wang, Chao & Zhang, Gaoyu & Ma, Jianfeng, 2019. "A rumor spreading model based on two propagation channels in social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 342-353.
    14. Illés J Farkas & Shuohong Wang, 2018. "Spatial flocking: Control by speed, distance, noise and delay," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, May.
    15. Zheng, Yaochen & Chen, Jianqiao & Wei, Junhong & Guo, Xiwei, 2012. "Modeling of pedestrian evacuation based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(17), pages 4225-4233.
    16. Yue, Hao & Zhang, Junyao & Chen, Wenxin & Wu, Xinsen & Zhang, Xu & Shao, Chunfu, 2021. "Simulation of the influence of spatial obstacles on evacuation pedestrian flow in walking facilities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
    17. Sungryong Bae & Jun-Ho Choi & Hong Sun Ryou, 2020. "Modification of Interaction Forces between Smoke and Evacuees," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-10, August.
    18. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    19. Lu, Peng, 2019. "Heterogeneity, judgment, and social trust of agents in rumor spreading," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 447-461.
    20. Lasse Pedersen, 2009. "When Everyone Runs for the Exit," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 177-199, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:417:y:2015:i:c:p:345-357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.