IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v23y2018i3d10.1007_s11142-018-9446-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing the market, industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew B. Jackson

    (UNSW Sydney)

  • Marlene A. Plumlee

    (University of Utah)

  • Brian R. Rountree

    (Rice University)

Abstract

Academics and practitioners frequently highlight that overall market and industry performance is an important aspect of a firm’s profitability. However, few studies allow for the decomposition of a firm’s profitability into market, industry, and idiosyncratic components, and those that do often assume that the market and industry components are cross-sectional constants. In this study, we allow for variation in firm-specific sensitivities to market, industry, and idiosyncratic economic shocks, and then assess whether and when this decomposition results in improved forecasts of profitability. For the overall sample, we find significant improvements in terms of the magnitude of forecast errors and the frequency with which forecasts based on the decomposed values are superior versus forecasts using only total profitability. Across the sample as a whole, decomposing profitability in the forecasting process results in more accurate forecasts greater than two-thirds of the time (increasing to almost 80% within certain subsamples). Our results provide strong support for the role that firm-specific measures of market and industry profitability play in predicting a firm’s future performance, as well as highlighting settings where the decomposition provides the greatest benefit in terms of predicting future changes in profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Jackson & Marlene A. Plumlee & Brian R. Rountree, 2018. "Decomposing the market, industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1071-1095, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:23:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11142-018-9446-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-018-9446-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-018-9446-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-018-9446-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    3. Amy P. Hutton & Lian Fen Lee & Susan Z. Shu, 2012. "Do Managers Always Know Better? The Relative Accuracy of Management and Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1217-1244, December.
    4. Schmalensee, Richard, 1985. "Do Markets Differ Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 341-351, June.
    5. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    6. Boni, Leslie & Womack, Kent L., 2006. "Analysts, Industries, and Price Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 85-109, March.
    7. Andrew B. Jackson & Brian R. Rountree & Konduru Sivaramakrishnan, 2017. "Earnings co-movements and earnings manipulation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1340-1365, September.
    8. Ayers, Benjamin & Freeman, Robert N., 1997. "Market assessment of industry and firm earnings information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 205-218, December.
    9. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Charles M. C. Lee & Derek K. Oler, 2003. "What's My Line? A Comparison of Industry Classification Schemes for Capital Market Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 745-774, December.
    10. Foster, George, 1981. "Intra-industry information transfers associated with earnings releases," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 201-232, December.
    11. ANITA M. McGAHAN & MICHAEL E. PORTER, 1997. "How Much Does Industry Matter, Really?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(S1), pages 15-30, July.
    12. Patricia M. Fairfield & Sundaresh Ramnath & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2009. "Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 147-178, March.
    13. Li, Ningzhong & Richardson, Scott & Tuna, İrem, 2014. "Macro to micro: Country exposures, firm fundamentals and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-20.
    14. Han, Jerry C. Y. & Wild, John J. & Ramesh, K., 1989. "Managers' earnings forecasts and intra-industry information transfers," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-33, February.
    15. Richard P. Rumelt, 1991. "How much does industry matter?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 167-185, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stephen A. Hillegeist & James P. Kavourakis & Matthew Pinnuck, 2023. "The association between quarter length, forecast errors, and firms’ voluntary disclosures," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 1885-1918, June.
    2. Naina Narang & Seema Gupta & Naliniprava Tripathy, 2023. "A bibliometric analysis of governance mechanisms in dividend decisions: an overview and emerging trends," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 410-430, December.
    3. Bhojraj, Sanjeev & Mohanram, Partha & Zhang, Suning, 2020. "ETFs and information transfer across firms," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    4. Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2024. "International economic policy uncertainty and analysts' earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Banerjee, Pradip & Dhole, Sandip & Mishra, Sagarika, 2023. "Operating performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: Is there a business group advantage?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Wenjie Ding & Khelifa Mazouz & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: new theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-525, August.
    7. Andrew B. Jackson & Chao Li & Richard D. Morris, 2020. "Earnings Co‐movements and the Informativeness of Earnings," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(3), pages 295-319, September.
    8. Dagmar Camska & Jiri Klecka, 2020. "Comparison of Prediction Models Applied in Economic Recession and Expansion," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Binz, Oliver & Ferracuti, Elia & Joos, Peter, 2023. "Investment, inflation, and the role of internal information systems as a transmission channel," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patricia M. Fairfield & Sundaresh Ramnath & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2009. "Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 147-178, March.
    2. Amor-Tapia, Borja & Tascón Fernández, María T., 2014. "Estimation of future levels and changes in profitability: The effect of the relative position of the firm in its industry and the operating-financing disaggregation," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 30-46.
    3. Chung, Dennis Y. & Hrazdil, Karel & Trottier, Kim, 2015. "On the efficiency of intra-industry information transfers: The dilution of the overreaction anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 153-167.
    4. Ole-Kristian Hope & Wuyang Zhao, 2018. "Market reactions to the closest peer firm’s analyst revisions," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 345-372, June.
    5. Dong, Yashu & Young, Danqing, 2021. "Foreign macroeconomic and industry-related information transfers around earnings announcements: Evidence from U.S.-listed non-U.S. firms," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2).
    6. Yi-Min Chen, 2008. "How Much Does Country Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 31(4), pages 404-435, October.
    7. Miguel A. Ariño & Africa Ariño & Roberto Garcia-Castro, 2008. "A model to evaluate transient industry effects," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(8), pages 629-637.
    8. Mercè Sala‐Ríos, 2024. "What are the determinants affecting cooperatives’ profitability? Evidence from Spain," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 85-111, March.
    9. Raza, Syed Ali & Farooq, M. Shoaib & Khan, Nadeem, 2011. "Firm and industry effects on firm profitability: an empirical analysis of KSE," MPRA Paper 36797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Changhyun Kim & Richard A. Bettis, 2014. "Cash is surprisingly valuable as a strategic asset," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(13), pages 2053-2063, December.
    11. Markus A. Fitza, 2014. "The use of variance decomposition in the investigation of CEO effects: How large must the CEO effect be to rule out chance?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(12), pages 1839-1852, December.
    12. Christmann, Petra & Day, Diana & Yip, George S., 1999. "The relative influence of country conditions, industry structure, and business strategy on multinational corporation subsidiary performance," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 241-265.
    13. Stefan Hirsch, 2018. "Successful In The Long Run: A Meta†Regression Analysis Of Persistent Firm Profits," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 23-49, February.
    14. Eriksen, Bo & Knudsen, Thorbjorn, 2003. "Industry and firm level interaction: Implications for profitability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 191-199, March.
    15. Alain Gilles FOKA TAGNE & Nestor Magloire LETSINA & David Claude NOUHOU NKENGANG & Aurélien FOMEKONG NOUBOSSE, 2021. "Rôle des outils de contrôle de gestion dans l’amélioration de la performance organisationnelle des entreprises au Cameroun," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 12(2), pages 103-123, December.
    16. Martijn J. Burger & Frank G. Oort & Otto Raspe, 2011. "Agglomeration and New Establishment Survival: A Mixed Hierarchical and Cross-Classified Model," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Roger R. Stough (ed.), Drivers of Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Regional Dynamics, pages 45-63, Springer.
    17. Jose G. Vargas-Hernandez, M.B.A., 2014. "Research Methodology Strategies In Strategic Management," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 10, pages 106-147.
    18. Dmitry Sharapov & Paul Kattuman & Diego Rodriguez & F. Javier Velazquez, 2021. "Using the SHAPLEY value approach to variance decomposition in strategy research: Diversification, internationalization, and corporate group effects on affiliate profitability," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 608-623, March.
    19. J. Vineesh Prakash & D. K. Nauriyal, 2020. "Automotive Components Industry and Profitability Factors: Evidence from India," Vision, , vol. 25(2), pages 209-223, June.
    20. Michael A. Hitt & David G. Sirmon & Yuan Li & Abby Ghobadian & Jean-Luc Arregle & Kai Xu, 2021. "Institutions, industries and entrepreneurial versus advantage-based strategies: how complex, nested environments affect strategic choice," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 25(1), pages 147-188, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomy; Market; Industry; Profitability; Forecasting; Firm-specific estimates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:23:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11142-018-9446-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.