IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/abacus/v60y2024i3p446-491.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Firm‐level Political Uncertainty Affect the Mispricing of Earnings? A Natural Experiment through Government‐to‐business Revolving Door

Author

Listed:
  • Haijie Huang
  • Edward Lee
  • Changjiang Lyu
  • Zhenmei (Judy) Zhu

Abstract

We utilize a unique setting associated with the mandatory closure of the government‐to‐business revolving door to examine whether and how an exogenous rise in firm‐level political uncertainty affects the mispricing of earnings. The tension that underlies our study stems from two opposing effects. To the extent that such uncertainty can trigger opinion divergence (rational attention) among investors, it is expected to delay (accelerate) price discovery and increase (decrease) security mispricing. Our identification strategy draws on the difference‐in‐differences analysis associated with the Chinese regulation in 2013 that mandated the resignation of corporate independent directors with a government background. Consistent with the dominance of the opinion divergence effect, we observe that these involuntary resignations unintentionally increase delays in share price responses following earnings announcements. These findings are more evident among firms that enjoy more benefits from independent directors with a government background. Further analyses confirm that these involuntary resignations trigger more opinion divergence rather than rational attention among investors by showing significant increases in analyst forecast diversity but no changes in analyst coverage following such resignations. We provide novel evidence that market information efficiency could deteriorate as an unintended consequence of the escalation of firm‐level political uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Haijie Huang & Edward Lee & Changjiang Lyu & Zhenmei (Judy) Zhu, 2024. "Does Firm‐level Political Uncertainty Affect the Mispricing of Earnings? A Natural Experiment through Government‐to‐business Revolving Door," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 60(3), pages 446-491, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:60:y:2024:i:3:p:446-491
    DOI: 10.1111/abac.12314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/abac.12314
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/abac.12314?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mingyi Hung & Xi Li & Shiheng Wang, 2015. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift in Global Markets: Evidence from an Information Shock," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 1242-1283.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    3. Jawad M. Addoum & Alok Kumar, 2016. "Political Sentiment and Predictable Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3471-3518.
    4. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    5. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    6. Luechinger, Simon & Moser, Christoph, 2014. "The value of the revolving door: Political appointees and the stock market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-107.
    7. Michael Firth & Oliver M. Rui & Wenfeng Wu, 2011. "The Effects of Political Connections and State Ownership on Corporate Litigation in China," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 573-607.
    8. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, February.
    11. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2009. "Do Politically Connected Boards Affect Firm Value?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2331-2360, June.
    12. Claessens, Stijn & Feijen, Erik & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Political connections and preferential access to finance: The role of campaign contributions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 554-580, June.
    13. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov, 2010. "Corporate Political Contributions and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 687-724, April.
    14. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    15. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2013. "Politically Connected Boards of Directors and The Allocation of Procurement Contracts," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1617-1648.
    16. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    17. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    18. Daniel Andrei & Michael Hasler, 2015. "Investor Attention and Stock Market Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 33-72.
    19. Nagar, Venky & Schoenfeld, Jordan & Wellman, Laura, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on investor information asymmetry and management disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 36-57.
    20. Snyder, James M, Jr, 1992. "Long-Term Investing in Politicians; or, Give Early, Give Often," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 15-43, April.
    21. Naomi Soderstrom & Kevin Jialin Sun, 2007. "IFRS Adoption and Accounting Quality: A Review," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 675-702.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    24. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58, January.
    25. Fan, Joseph P.H. & Wong, T.J. & Zhang, Tianyu, 2007. "Politically connected CEOs, corporate governance, and Post-IPO performance of China's newly partially privatized firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 330-357, May.
    26. Agrawal, Anup & Knoeber, Charles R, 2001. "Do Some Outside Directors Play a Political Role?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 179-198, April.
    27. Huang, Haijie & Lee, Edward & Lyu, Changjiang & Zhu, Zhenmei, 2016. "The effect of accounting academics in the boardroom on the value relevance of financial reporting information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 18-30.
    28. David Hirshleifer & Sonya S. Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2011. "Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 35-73.
    29. Wang, Qian & Wong, T.J. & Xia, Lijun, 2008. "State ownership, the institutional environment, and auditor choice: Evidence from China," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 112-134, September.
    30. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    31. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-872, August.
    32. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    33. repec:oup:revfin:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3471-3518. is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Amore, Mario Daniele & Minichilli, Alessandro, 2018. "Local Political Uncertainty, Family Control, and Investment Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 1781-1804, August.
    35. Quang Nguyen & Trang Kim & Marina Papanastassiou, 2018. "Correction to: Policy uncertainty, derivatives use, and firm-level FDI," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(2), pages 248-248, February.
    36. Azi Ben-Rephael & Zhi Da & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2017. "It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3009-3047.
    37. Amore, Mario Daniele & Bennedsen, Morten, 2013. "The value of local political connections in a low-corruption environment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 387-402.
    38. Quang Nguyen & Trang Kim & Marina Papanastassiou, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, derivatives use, and firm-level FDI," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(1), pages 96-126, January.
    39. Kim, Yongtae & Park, Myung Seok, 2009. "Market uncertainty and disclosure of internal control deficiencies under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 419-445, September.
    40. Correia, Maria M., 2014. "Political connections and SEC enforcement," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 241-262.
    41. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    42. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    43. Joel F. Houston & Liangliang Jiang & Chen Lin & Yue Ma, 2014. "Political Connections and the Cost of Bank Loans," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 193-243, March.
    44. Qinglu Jin & Yuchao Jin & Gary Gang Tian & Yang Xuan, 2021. "Does Internal Corporate Governance Complement or Substitute for External Auditing? Evidence from China's Anti‐corruption Campaign," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(1), pages 153-182, March.
    45. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    46. MARA FACCIO & RONALD W. MASULIS & JOHN J. McCONNELL, 2006. "Political Connections and Corporate Bailouts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2597-2635, December.
    47. Efraim Benmelech & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2010. "The Political Economy of Financial Regulation: Evidence from U.S. State Usury Laws in the 19th Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1029-1073, June.
    48. Subramanyam, K. R., 1996. "The pricing of discretionary accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 249-281, October.
    49. Obrien, Pc & Bhushan, R, 1990. "Analyst Following And Institutional Ownership," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28, pages 55-76.
    50. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2005. "Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1371-1411.
    51. Jun†Koo Kang & Le Zhang, 2018. "Do Outside Directors with Government Experience Create Value?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 209-251, June.
    52. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    53. Mashruwala, Christina & Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2006. "Why is the accrual anomaly not arbitraged away? The role of idiosyncratic risk and transaction costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 3-33, October.
    54. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    55. Kim, Chansog (Francis) & Pantzalis, Christos & Chul Park, Jung, 2012. "Political geography and stock returns: The value and risk implications of proximity to political power," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 196-228.
    56. Pramuan Bunkanwanicha & Yupana Wiwattanakantang, 2009. "Big Business Owners in Politics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2133-2168, June.
    57. Jon A. Garfinkel & Jonathan Sokobin, 2006. "Volume, Opinion Divergence, and Returns: A Study of Post–Earnings Announcement Drift," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 85-112, March.
    58. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    59. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    60. Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton, 2002. "Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 575-606, March.
    61. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    62. Ronnie Sadka & Anna Scherbina, 2007. "Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2367-2403, October.
    63. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    64. Doukas, John A. & Kim, Chansog (Francis) & Pantzalis, Christos, 2006. "Divergence of Opinion and Equity Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 573-606, September.
    65. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
    66. Renée B. Adams & Daniel Ferreira, 2007. "A Theory of Friendly Boards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 217-250, February.
    67. Xu, Yongxin, 2018. "Anticorruption regulation and firm value: Evidence from a shock of mandated resignation of directors in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 67-80.
    68. Laura A. Wellman, 2017. "Mitigating political uncertainty," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 217-250, March.
    69. Amon Chizema & Xiaohui Liu & Jiangyong Lu & Lan Gao, 2015. "Politically connected boards and top executive pay in Chinese listed firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 890-906, June.
    70. Ed Dehaan & Joshua Madsen & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2017. "Do Weather‐Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 509-550, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Colak, Gonul & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Loukopoulos, Panagiotis & Loukopoulos, Georgios, 2021. "Political power, local policy uncertainty and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    3. Wei, Chunyan & Hu, Shiyang & Chen, Feng, 2020. "Do political connection disruptions increase labor costs in a government-dominated market? Evidence from publicly listed companies in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    5. Magnus Blomkvist & E. Liljeblom & A. Löflund & E. Redor, 2024. "Political Connections and Shareholder Support," Post-Print hal-04662505, HAL.
    6. Tang, Xuesong & Lin, Yan & Peng, Qing & Du, Jun & Chan, Kam C., 2016. "Politically connected directors and firm value: Evidence from forced resignations in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 148-167.
    7. Michelson, Noam, 2023. "The revolving door of former civil servants and firm value: A comprehensive approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons-Rosen & José-Luis Peydró, 2016. "Political Connections: Evidence From Insider Trading Around TARP," Working Papers 935, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Ozlem Akin & Nicholas S. Coleman & Christian Fons‐Rosen & José‐Luis Peydró, 2021. "Political connections and informed trading: Evidence from TARP," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 619-644, September.
    10. Ormazabal, Gaizka & Jagolinzer, Alan D. & Larcker, David F. & Taylor, Daniel, 2017. "Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades," CEPR Discussion Papers 12153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Wong, Wai-Yan & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2018. "Do types of political connection affect firm performance differently?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 297-317.
    12. Child, Travers Barclay & Massoud, Nadia & Schabus, Mario & Zhou, Yifan, 2021. "Surprise election for Trump connections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 676-697.
    13. Chen, Shuo & Yan, Xun & Yang, Bo, 2020. "Move to success? Headquarters relocation, political favoritism, and corporate performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Onal, Bunyamin, 2023. "Do politically connected directors play an information role under policy uncertainty?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Wang, Fengrong & Mbanyele, William & Muchenje, Linda, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock liquidity: The mitigating effect of information disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Huang, Jiekun, 2020. "All the president's friends: Political access and firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 415-431.
    17. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    18. Ding, Rong & Li, Jialong & Wu, Zhenyu, 2018. "Government affiliation, real earnings management, and firm performance: The case of privately held firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 138-150.
    19. Adrian, Christofer & Garg, Mukesh & Viet Pham, Anh & Phang, Soon-Yeow & Truong, Cameron, 2022. "Policy and oversight of corporate political activities and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2).
    20. Colin P. Green & Swarnodeep Homroy, 2022. "Incorporated in Westminster: Channels and Returns to Political Connection in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 377-408, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:60:y:2024:i:3:p:446-491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0001-3072 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.