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Why do investors buy sovereign default insurance?

Author

Listed:
  • Augustin, Patrick
  • Sokolovski, Valeri
  • Subrahmanyam, Marti G.

Abstract

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of trading in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) market, using weekly data for single-name sovereign CDS from October 2008 to September 2015. We describe the anatomy of the sovereign CDS market, derive a law of motion for gross positions and their components, and identify the key factors that drive the cross-sectional and time-series properties of trading volume and net notional amounts outstanding. While a single principal component accounts for 54 percent of the variation in sovereign CDS spreads, the largest common factor explains only 7 percent of the variation in sovereign CDS net notional amounts outstanding. Moreover, unlike for CDS spreads, common global factors explain very little of the variation in sovereign CDS trading and net notional amounts outstanding, suggesting that it is driven primarily by idiosyncratic country risk. We analyze several local and regional channels that may explain the trading in sovereign CDS: (a) country-specific credit risk shocks, including changes in a country's credit rating and related outlook changes, (b) the announcement and issuance of domestic and international debt, (c) macroeconomic sentiment derived from conventional and unconventional monetary policy, macro-economic news and shocks, and (d) regulatory channels, such as changes in bank capital adequacy requirements. All our findings suggest that sovereign CDS are more likely used for hedging than for speculative purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2016. "Why do investors buy sovereign default insurance?," CFS Working Paper Series 540, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:540
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2848944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Gündüz, Yalin & Johnson, Timothy C., 2022. "Bank use of sovereign CDS in the Eurozone crisis: Hedging and risk incentives," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Determinants of CDS trading on major banks," Working Papers Dissertations 51, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    3. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Dongho Song, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Risk and Exchange Rates: Evidence from CDS Quanto Spreads," NBER Working Papers 24506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking Regulation; Basel III; Contagion; Credit Default Swaps; OTC; Sovereign Credit Risk; Systemic Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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