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The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Risk

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  • Jeanneret, Alexandre

Abstract

This article proposes a structural model for sovereign credit risk with endogenous sovereign debt and default policies. A maximum-likelihood estimation of the model with local stock market prices generates daily model-implied sovereign spreads. This approach explains two-thirds of the daily variation in observed sovereign spreads for emerging and European economies over the 2000–2011 period. Global factors help to further explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk. In particular, sovereign spreads in emerging markets vary with U.S. market uncertainty, whereas European spreads depend on Euro-zone bond factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2015. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 963-985, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:50:y:2015:i:05:p:963-985_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Mäkinen, Taneli & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2020. "Risky bank guarantees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 490-522.
    2. Broeders, Dirk & de Haan, Leo & Willem van den End, Jan, 2023. "How quantitative easing changes the nature of sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
    4. Chang Liu & Biqian Zhang & Xuefei Wang & Min Guo, 2022. "Account-level analytic hierarchical mixing modeling for credit risk of Chinese Government financing vehicle portfolios," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2771-2798, June.
    5. Mariya Gubareva, 2018. "Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 405-442, November.
    6. Hübel, Benjamin, 2022. "Do markets value ESG risks in sovereign credit curves?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 134-148.
    7. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Li, Ka-Fai & Fu, John, 2018. "Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-110.
    8. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2018. "Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-246.
    9. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Non-performing loans and sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 301-314.
    10. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 92-111.
    11. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2017. "What’s Mine Is Yours: Sovereign Risk Transmission during the European Debt Crisis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Andrade, Sandro C. & Ekponon, Adelphe & Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2023. "Sovereign risk premia and global macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 172-197.
    13. Christoph Wegener & Tobias Basse & Frederik Kunze & Hans-Jörg von Mettenheim, 2016. "Oil prices and sovereign credit risk of oil producing countries: an empirical investigation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1961-1968, December.

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