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The Dynamic Effects of Antitrust Policy on Growth and Welfare

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  • Cavenaile, Laurent
  • Celik, Murat Alp
  • Tian, Xu

Abstract

To study the dynamic effects of antitrust policy on growth and welfare, we develop and estimate the first general equilibrium model with Schumpeterian innovation, oligopolistic product market competition, and endogenous M&A decisions. The estimated model reveals that: (1) Existing policies generate gains in growth and welfare. (2) Strengthening antitrust enforcement could deliver substantially higher gains. (3) The dynamic long-run effects of antitrust policy on social welfare are an order of magnitude larger than the static gains from higher allocative efficiency in production. (4) Current HHI-based antitrust rules leave the majority of anticompetitive acquisitions undetected, highlighting the need for alternative guidelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavenaile, Laurent & Celik, Murat Alp & Tian, Xu, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of Antitrust Policy on Growth and Welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 42-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:121:y:2021:i:c:p:42-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.04.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jackie M. L. Chan & Han (Steffan) Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    3. Salomé Baslandze, 2021. "Barriers to Creative Destruction: Large Firms and Nonproductive Strategies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Zhao, Yiyun, 2023. "Does the Antimonopoly Law improve companies’ cash-holding management efficiency? Empirical evidence from Chinese listed companies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    5. J. M. L. Chan & H. Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Post-Print hal-04719146, HAL.

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