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The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence

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  • Demirel, Ufuk Devrim

Abstract

This study evaluates how the state of the economy, as measured by the rate of unemployment, influences the short-term effects of tax changes on output and employment. I examine the effects of narratively identified tax changes by adopting two alternative approaches to estimating state-dependent impulse response functions that have been widely used in the recent literature. Both approaches suggest that short-term effects of tax changes on output and employment are smaller during times of higher unemployment. I argue that increased labor market slack and tighter credit conditions in contractionary periods can reduce the responsiveness of labor supply to changes in labor income taxes, resulting in smaller effects on output from tax changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2021. "The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 918-934.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:117:y:2021:i:c:p:918-934
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.07.002
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    2. Haroon Mumtaz & Katerina Petrova, 2023. "Changing Impact of Shocks: A Time‐Varying Proxy SVAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 635-654, March.
    3. Désirée I. Christofzik & Angela Fuest & Robin Jessen, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of the Anticipation and Implementation of Tax Changes in Germany: Evidence from a Narrative Account," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 62-81, January.
    4. Castro Nofal, Bastian & Díaz, Juan D. & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo & Hansen, Erwin, 2024. "On the robustness of the relationship between tax progressivity, growth, and inequality in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "Spillovers from Tax Shocks to the Euro Area," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202133, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Fleischhacker, Jan, 2024. "Fiscal policy and the business cycle: An argument for non-linear policy rules," MPRA Paper 122497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Stephanie Ettmeier, 2022. "No Taxation without Reallocation: The Distributional Effects of Tax Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2022, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar & Herrera, Ana María, 2021. "Tax news in good and bad times," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    9. Hayo, Bernd & Mierzwa, Sascha, 2022. "Legislative tax announcements and GDP: Evidence from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Kenc, Turalay & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2024. "Global corporate tax policy space," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
    11. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok, 2023. "Household indebtedness and the macroeconomic effects of tax changes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 22-52.
    12. Arin, K. Peren & Devereux, Kevin & Mazur, Mieszko, 2023. "Taxes and firm investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Sebastian Gechert, 2023. "Fiscal policy: post- or New Keynesian?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 338-355, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax Policy; Fiscal Policy; State Dependence; Labor Market Frictions; Credit Constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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