IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v241y2024ics016517652400291x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the robustness of the relationship between tax progressivity, growth, and inequality in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Castro Nofal, Bastian
  • Díaz, Juan D.
  • Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo
  • Hansen, Erwin

Abstract

We investigate the impact of a shock in tax progressivity on GDP growth and income inequality in the US between 1969 and 2016. Employing various robustness tests, including different imputation methods for the progressivity index, as well as utilizing Vector Autoregressive and Linear Projection models for estimating impulse response functions, we find that both GDP growth and inequality decline in response to more tax progressivity. Nevertheless, only the effect on inequality remains statistically significant across our battery of robustness exercises, while the negative effect on GDP growth is robustly significant only prior to the Great Recession in 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Castro Nofal, Bastian & Díaz, Juan D. & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo & Hansen, Erwin, 2024. "On the robustness of the relationship between tax progressivity, growth, and inequality in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s016517652400291x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016517652400291X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111807?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jalles, João Tovar & Karras, Georgios, 2024. "Tax progressivity and income inequality in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    2. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    3. J. A. Mirrlees, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(2), pages 175-208.
    4. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Michael Pak & Nicolo Russo & Fang Yang, 2023. "FBBVA Lecture 2023. The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes over Time: U.S. Reforms and Outcomes," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2237-2286.
    5. Jonathan Heathcote & Hitoshi Tsujiyama, 2021. "Optimal Income Taxation: Mirrlees Meets Ramsey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(11), pages 3141-3184.
    6. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2017. "Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1693-1754.
    7. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2021. "The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 918-934.
    8. Frederick Solt, 2020. "Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1183-1199, May.
    9. Claudia Gerber & Alexander Klemm & Li Liu & Victor Mylonas, 2020. "Income Tax Progressivity: Trends and Implications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 365-386, April.
    10. Carneiro, Fernando Moraes & Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Tourinho, Octavio Augusto Fontes, 2022. "Economic growth and inequality tradeoffs under progressive taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Emmanuel Saez, 2001. "Using Elasticities to Derive Optimal Income Tax Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(1), pages 205-229.
    12. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    14. Jalles, João Tovar & Karras, Georgios, 2024. "Tax progressivity and output in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    15. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    16. Dawson, John W., 2022. "Average marginal tax rates in the U.S., 1913–2019," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    17. Li Wenli & Pierre -Daniel Sarte, 2004. "Progressive Taxation and Long-Run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1705-1716, December.
    18. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    19. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jalles, João Tovar & Karras, Georgios, 2024. "Tax progressivity and income inequality in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    2. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    3. Ho, Paul & Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2024. "Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    6. Roozbeh Hosseini & Ali Shourideh, 2019. "Retirement Financing: An Optimal Reform Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1205-1265, July.
    7. Janeba, Eckhard & Schulz, Karl, 2023. "Nonlinear taxation and international mobility in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    8. Francisco Serranito & Philipp RODERWEIS & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Antràs, Pol & de Gortari, Alonso & Itskhoki, Oleg, 2017. "Globalization, inequality and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 387-412.
    10. Paweł Doligalski & Abdoulaye Ndiaye & Nicolas Werquin, 2023. "Redistribution with Performance Pay," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(2), pages 371-402.
    11. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "Bayesian local projections," Working Papers hal-03373574, HAL.
    12. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Nezih Guner & Javier López-Segovia & Roberto Ramos, 2020. "Reforming the individual income tax in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-406, December.
    14. Yongsung Chang & Yena Park, 2021. "Optimal Taxation with Private Insurance [Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2766-2798.
    15. Ugo Colombino & Nizamul Islam, 2022. "The “Robot Economy†and optimal tax-transfer reforms," CHILD Working Papers Series 101 JEL Classification: H, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.
    16. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    17. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2024. "Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Colombino, Ugo & Islam, Nizamul, 2022. "The "Robot Economy" and Optimal Tax-Transfer Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 15198, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    20. Ayaz, Mehmet & Fricke, Lea & Fuest, Clemens & Sachs, Dominik, 2023. "Who should bear the burden of COVID-19 related fiscal pressure? An optimal income taxation perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    LP; VAR; HSV tax progressivity;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s016517652400291x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.