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ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand

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  • Lim, Christine
  • McAleer, Michael
  • Min, Jennifer C.H.

Abstract

Box–Jenkins (1970) models are often used to capture the autoregressive moving average of past observations of tourist arrivals from Japan to Taiwan and New Zealand. However, other explanatory variables, such as real income in the origin country, have also affected the demand for international travel. The purpose of this paper is to use the ARMAX model to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism demand and real income of Japan, and to compare the findings with the single-equation model. Unit root tests and diagnostics are performed before estimating the income elasticity of travel demand by Japan for New Zealand and Taiwan based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly data for 1980(1) to 2004(2). The empirical results of the ARMAX model support the economic theory that the demand for international travel is positively related to income of the origin country.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Christine & McAleer, Michael & Min, Jennifer C.H., 2009. "ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2879-2888.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:79:y:2009:i:9:p:2879-2888
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.08.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christine Lim, 2006. "A Survey of Tourism Demand Modelling Practice: Issues and Implications," Chapters, in: Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth (ed.), 2006. "International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2827.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Ozer Balli, Hatice & Gilbey, Andrew & Gow, Hamish, 2014. "Forecasting of Hong Kong airport's passenger throughput," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 62-76.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Christine Lim, 2010. "Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan," Working Papers in Economics 10/40, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Miaomiao Niu & Guohao Li, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change Risks on Residential Consumption in China: Evidence from ARMAX Modeling and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Jennifer Min & Christine Lim & Hsien-Hung Kung, 2011. "Intervention analysis of SARS on Japanese tourism demand for Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 91-102, January.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Christine Lim, 2009. "Modelling Short and Long Haul Volatility in Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-647, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Chalermpon Jatuporn, 2022. "Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Shrimp Exports in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using Time Series Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Arvind Patel & Nikeel Kumar & Selvin Prasad, 2016. "Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1085-1101, September.
    8. Wai Hong Kan Tsui & Faruk Balli, 2017. "International arrivals forecasting for Australian airports and the impact of tourism marketing expenditure," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(2), pages 403-428, March.
    9. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Stavros Degiannakis & Bruno Eeckels & George Filis, 2016. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2571-2585, June.
    10. Wang, Yu Shan, 2014. "Effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 9-18.
    11. Chalermpon Jatuporn & Patana Sukprasert & Siros Tongchure & Vasu Suvanvihok & Supat Thongkaew, 2020. "Forecasting import demand of table grapes: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 578-586, December.
    12. Peter Josef Stauvermann & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, 2017. "Modeling economic growth with tourism for small open economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 1001-1018, November.
    13. Pham, Tien Duc & Nghiem, Son & Dwyer, Larry, 2017. "The determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia: A dynamic demand analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 268-276.
    14. Jatuporn, Chalermpon & Sukprasert, Patana & Tongchurec, Siros & Suvanvihok, Vasu & Thongkaew, Supat, 2020. "Forecasting Import Demand of Table Grapes: Empirical Evidence from Thailand," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 10(02), January.
    15. Zhang, Yishuo & Li, Gang & Muskat, Birgit & Vu, Huy Quan & Law, Rob, 2021. "Predictivity of tourism demand data," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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