IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ajosrd/342278.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Import Demand of Table Grapes: Empirical Evidence from Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Jatuporn, Chalermpon
  • Sukprasert, Patana
  • Tongchurec, Siros
  • Suvanvihok, Vasu
  • Thongkaew, Supat

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to forecast the import demand of table grapes of Thailand using monthly time series from January 2007 to April 2020. The ADF unit root test is used for stationarity checking, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) is applied to forecast the import demand of table grapes. The results revealed that the integration of time series was in the first difference for non-seasonal and seasonal order. The best-fitted forecasting model was SARIMA(1,1,3)(2,1,0)12. The forecasted period for the next eight months showed the import demand of table grapes of Thailand that is slightly decreased by an average of 11.398 percent, with overall expected to decrease by an average of 15.218 percent in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Jatuporn, Chalermpon & Sukprasert, Patana & Tongchurec, Siros & Suvanvihok, Vasu & Thongkaew, Supat, 2020. "Forecasting Import Demand of Table Grapes: Empirical Evidence from Thailand," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 10(02), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajosrd:342278
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.342278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/342278/files/Forecasting%20Import%20Demand%20of%20Table%20Grapes%20Empirical%20Evidence%20from%20Thailand.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.342278?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    2. M. Asif Masood & Irum Raza & Saleem Abid, 2018. "Forecasting wheat production using time series models in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 172-177, July.
    3. M Asif Masood & Irum Raza & Saleem Abid, 2018. "Forecasting Wheat Production Using Time Series Models in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 172-177.
    4. Lim, Christine & McAleer, Michael & Min, Jennifer C.H., 2009. "ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2879-2888.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chalermpon Jatuporn & Patana Sukprasert & Siros Tongchure & Vasu Suvanvihok & Supat Thongkaew, 2020. "Forecasting import demand of table grapes: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 578-586, December.
    2. Chalermpon Jatuporn, 2022. "Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Shrimp Exports in Thailand: An Empirical Study Using Time Series Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Rehima Mussema, 2024. "Subsector Outlook Research in Ethiopia: The Case of Hides and Skins Production, and Marketing," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Sushanta Mallick, 2004. "A dynamic macroeconometric model for short-run stabilization in India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 261-276.
    5. UÄŸur Korkut Pata & Harun Terzi, 2016. "Testing for Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality between FDI and Foreign Trade in Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 47-70, September.
    6. De Vita, Glauco & Abbott, Andrew, 2002. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 293-299, October.
    7. Debasish Roy, 2024. "An Exploration in Sustainability and Lifespan of Enterprise: A Cross–Country Empirical Study (2011–2020)," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5307-5328, June.
    8. Olga Fullana & Mariano González & David Toscano, 2021. "The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-11, March.
    9. doğru, bülent, 2013. "Seigniorage Revenue and Inflation Tax in Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 45538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Uk Heo, 1998. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Relationship around the Globe," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(5), pages 637-657, October.
    12. Moss, Charles B., 2006. "Valuing State-Level Funding for Research: Results for Florida," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 169-183, April.
    13. Gregg Huff, 2012. "Gateway cities and urbanisation in southeast asia before world war II," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _096, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    14. Goodall, Amanda H., 2009. "Highly cited leaders and the performance of research universities," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1079-1092, September.
    15. Miguel Ramirez & Shahryar Khan, 1999. "A cointegration analysis of purchasing power parity: 1973–96," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(3), pages 369-385, August.
    16. Mamingi, Nlandu & Martin, Kareem, 2018. "Foreign direct investment and growth in developing countries: evidence from the countries of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    17. Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Ozer Balli, Hatice & Gilbey, Andrew & Gow, Hamish, 2014. "Forecasting of Hong Kong airport's passenger throughput," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 62-76.
    18. Wang, Shanchao & Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2023. "R&D Lags in Economic Models," Staff Papers 330085, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    19. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    20. Sriwena Saleerut & Chalermpon Jatuporn & Vasu Suvanvihok & Apinya Wanaset, 2020. "Price adjustment of oil palm and palm oil in Thailand to the world price of the palm oil market," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(2), pages 690-697, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ajosrd:342278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aesstea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.