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Testing for contagion in ASEAN exchange rates

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  • McAleer, Michael
  • Nam, Jason Chee Wei

Abstract

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 brought to the attention of member countries of the Association of South East Asian Countries (ASEAN-5) (comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) the need for closer monetary co-operation. Central to the OCA literature is the nature and symmetry of underlying economic disturbances. If the economic disturbances are similar across the countries in a region, then the costs of establishing a common currency area are likely to be small. As the presence of contagion necessarily means there is an increase in the correlation of shocks experienced within a region, this paper examines the suitability of establishing a common currency area for ASEAN-5 from the perspective of contagion. In order to select the breakpoints for contagion endogenously, a modified sequential dummy variable method is developed. The empirical results show that contagion is present between all country pairs in ASEAN-5, which indicates that the degree of correlation among the ASEAN-5 economies has increased during the Asian financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • McAleer, Michael & Nam, Jason Chee Wei, 2005. "Testing for contagion in ASEAN exchange rates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 517-525.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:68:y:2005:i:5:p:517-525
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2005.02.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mardi Dungey & Diana Zhumabekova, 2001. "Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 232-261, February.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Wajih Khallouli, 2009. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 241-260.
    2. Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Wajih Khallouli, 2009. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 241-260, June.
    3. Gourène, Grakolet Arnold Zamereith & Mendy, Pierre, 2015. "Oil Prices and African Stock Markets Co-movement: A Time and Frequency Analysis," MPRA Paper 75852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gourène, Grakolet Arnold Zamereith & Mendy, Pierre & Ake N'gbo, Gilbert Marie, 2017. "Multiple time-xcales analysis of global stock markets spillovers effects in African stock markets," MPRA Paper 77632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aymen Ben Rejeb, 2013. "Volatility spillovers and contagion: an empirical analysis of structural changes in emerging market volatility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 56-71.
    6. Kamel Malik BENSAFTA & Gervasio SEMEDO, 2013. "Transmission de la volatilité et central banking : quelles réactions durant la crise des subprimes ?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1694, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Gourène, Grakolet Arnold Zamereith & Mendy, Pierre, 2014. "Beginning an African Stock Markets Integration? A Wavelet Analysis," MPRA Paper 76048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kamel Malik Bensafta & Gervasio Semedo, 2014. "Transmission de la volatilité et Central-Banking," Working Papers halshs-01012058, HAL.
    9. Aymen Ben Rejeb & Adel Boughrara, 2015. "Financial integration in emerging market economies: Effects on volatility transmission and contagion," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(3), pages 161-179, September.
    10. Bensafta, Kamel Malik & Semedo, Gervasio, 2009. "De la transmission de la volatilité à la contagion entre marchés boursiers : l’éclairage d’un modèle VAR non linéaire avec bris structurels en variance," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(1), pages 13-76, mars.
    11. Wajih Khallouli, 2008. "Shift-Contagion in Middle East and North Africa Stock Markets," Working Papers 420, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2008.
    12. Jianxu Liu & Mengjiao Wang & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Examining the Interdependence between the Exchange Rates of China and ASEAN Countries: A Canonical Vine Copula Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-20, October.

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