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Testing for asset market linkages: a new approach based on time-varying copulas

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  • Manner, H.

    (Quantitative Economics)

  • Candelon, B.

    (Macro, International & Labour Economics)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach based on time‐varying copulas to test for the presence of increases in stock market interdependence (also known as shift contagion) after a financial crisis. We discuss the importance of considering simultaneously separate breaks in volatility and dependence. Without such consideration, the contagion test turns out to be biased. A sequential algorithm is proposed to tackle this problem. Applied to the recent 1997 Asian crisis, the analysis confirms that breaks in variances always precede those in the dependence parameter. Moreover, a significant ‘J‐shape’ evolution of the dependence parameter is detected, supporting the idea of shift contagion.
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  • Manner, H. & Candelon, B., 2007. "Testing for asset market linkages: a new approach based on time-varying copulas," Research Memorandum 052, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2007052
    DOI: 10.26481/umamet.2007052
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    Cited by:

    1. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "The Determinants Of A Simultaneous Crash In Gold And Stock Markets: An Ordered Logit Approach," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Michele Anelli & Michele Patanè & Stefano Zedda, 2022. "Are Banks Still a Risk Source for Stock Market? Some Empirical Evidences," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Almeida, Carlos & Czado, Claudia, 2012. "Efficient Bayesian inference for stochastic time-varying copula models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1511-1527.
    4. Manner, Hans & Blatt, Dominik & Candelon, Bertrand, 2014. "Detecting financial contagion in a multivariate system," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100411, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Dominik Blatt & Kausik Chaudhuri & Hans Manner, 2021. "Spillover in the UK Housing Market," Graz Economics Papers 2021-13, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    6. Chang, Guang-Di & Chen, Chia-Shih, 2014. "Evidence of contagion in global REITs investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 148-158.
    7. Marinela Adriana Finta & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani-Rad, 2019. "Time-varying contemporaneous spillovers during the European Debt Crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 423-448, August.
    8. Manner, H., 2008. "Testing for Asymmetric Dependence," Research Memorandum 042, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    9. Manner Hans, 2010. "Testing for Asymmetric Dependence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-32, March.
    10. Silvapulle, Param & Fenech, Jean Pierre & Thomas, Alice & Brooks, Rob, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads and contagion in the peripheral EU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 83-92.
    11. Manner, Hans & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Stöckler, Florian, 2024. "A changepoint analysis of exchange rate and commodity price risks for Latin American stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1385-1403.
    12. Emmanuel Afuecheta & Saralees Nadarajah & Stephen Chan, 2021. "A Statistical Analysis of Global Economies Using Time Varying Copulas," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1167-1194, December.
    13. Blatt, Dominik & Candelon, Bertrand & Manner, Hans, 2015. "Detecting contagion in a multivariate time series system: An application to sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-13.

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