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Fractional-order deterministic epidemic model for the spread and control of HIV/AIDS with special reference to Mexico and India

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  • Mangal, Shiv
  • Misra, O.P.
  • Dhar, Joydip

Abstract

This paper introduces a deterministic fractional-order epidemic model (FOEM) for studying the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The model highlights the substantial role of unaware and undetected HIV-infected individuals in spreading the disease. Control strategies, such as wielding condoms, level of preventive measures to avoid infection, and self-strictness of susceptibles in sexual contact, have been incorporated into the study. The basic reproduction number ℛ0α has been derived, which suggests the conditions for ensuring the persistence and elimination of the disease. Further, to validate the model, actual HIV data taken from Mexico and India separately have been used. The disease dynamics and its control in both countries are analyzed broadly. The values of biological parameters are estimated at which numerical solutions better match the actual data of HIV patients in the case of fractional-order (FO) instead of integer-order (IO). Moreover, in the light of ℛ0α, our findings forecast that the disease will abide in the population in Mexico, and at the same time, it will die out from India after a long time.

Suggested Citation

  • Mangal, Shiv & Misra, O.P. & Dhar, Joydip, 2023. "Fractional-order deterministic epidemic model for the spread and control of HIV/AIDS with special reference to Mexico and India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 82-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:210:y:2023:i:c:p:82-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2023.03.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto Garrappa, 2018. "Numerical Solution of Fractional Differential Equations: A Survey and a Software Tutorial," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, January.
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    7. Abidemi, Afeez & Owolabi, Kolade M. & Pindza, Edson, 2022. "Modelling the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever with nonlinear incidence rate and vertical transmission," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 597(C).
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