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Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis

In: Public Policy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Warren E. Walker

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Jan H. Kwakkel

    (Delft University of Technology)

Abstract

Synonyms: uncertainty, doubt, dubiety, skepticism, suspicion, mistrust, mean lack of sureness about someone or something. Uncertainty may range from falling short of certainty to an almost complete lack of conviction or knowledge especially about an outcome or result. Doubt suggests both uncertainty and inability to make a decision. Dubiety stresses a wavering between conclusions. Skepticism implies unwillingness to believe without conclusive evidence. Suspicion stresses lack of faith in the truth, reality, fairness, or reliability of something or someone. Mistrust implies a genuine doubt based upon suspicion. [Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary].

Suggested Citation

  • Warren E. Walker & Vincent A. W. J. Marchau & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Wil A. H. Thissen & Warren E. Walker (ed.), Public Policy Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 215-261, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-1-4614-4602-6_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-4602-6_9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrzej Magruk, 2021. "Analysis of Uncertainties and Levels of Foreknowledge in Relation to Major Features of Emerging Technologies—The Context of Foresight Research for the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 3-24.
    4. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. Chamon Wieles & Jan Kwakkel & Willem L. Auping & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Scenario discovery to address deep uncertainty in monetary policy," Working Papers 818, DNB.
    7. Setiawan, Andri D. & Dewi, Marmelia P. & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Hidayatno, Akhmad, 2022. "Evaluating feed-in tariff policies on enhancing geothermal development in Indonesia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Eker, Sibel & van Daalen, Els, 2015. "A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 178-196.
    9. Paredes-Vergara, Matías & Palma-Behnke, Rodrigo & Haas, Jannik, 2024. "Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    10. Araz Taeihagh & M Ramesh & Michael Howlett, 2021. "Assessing the regulatory challenges of emerging disruptive technologies," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 1009-1019, October.
    11. Simona Mannucci & Federica Rosso & Alessandro D’Amico & Gabriele Bernardini & Michele Morganti, 2022. "Flood Resilience and Adaptation in the Built Environment: How Far along Are We?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, March.
    12. Schils, René L.M. & van Voorn, George A.K. & Grassini, Patricio & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2022. "Uncertainty is more than a number or colour: Involving experts in uncertainty assessments of yield gaps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    13. Kris Hartley & Michael Howlett, 2021. "Policy Assemblages and Policy Resilience: Lessons for Non-Design from Evolutionary Governance Theory," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(2), pages 451-459.
    14. Daniel Puig & Fatemeh Bakhtiari, 2019. "Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 86-89, March.
    15. Haas, Christian & Kempa, Karol & Moslener, Ulf, 2023. "Dealing with deep uncertainty in the energy transition: What we can learn from the electricity and transportation sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

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