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Tipping points in adaptation to urban flooding under climate change and urban growth: The case of the Dhaka megacity

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  • Ahmed, Farhana
  • Moors, Eddy
  • Khan, M. Shah Alam
  • Warner, Jeroen
  • Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Catharien

Abstract

Envisioning the future city as the outcome of planned development, several master and strategic plans for Dhaka were prepared. However, these plans, do not adequately address the well-known and combined effects of climate change and unplanned urbanization on urban flooding. Additionally, the spatial planning component is missing in adaptation planning, which broadly concentrates on the climate change. Long-term adaptation strategies should consider both the temporal and spatial extent of flooding. Uncertainties in climate change and urbanization will induce planning failure beyond the Adaptation Tipping Point for flooding exceeding the thresholds of the bio-physical system or the acceptable limits of societal preference. In this paper, a shift is proposed from the current planning practice of single-dimensional ‘Predict and Act’ towards a more resilience-based ‘Monitor and Adapt’ approach. It is prudent to visualize the effects of urbanization and climate change and translate them into strategies for improved adaptation based spatial planning. Here, Dhaka's exposure to floods under different climate change and urban (planned and unplanned) development scenarios is assessed based on acceptable thresholds obtained from plans (top-down defined) and stakeholders (bottom-up perspectives). The scale of effects of these two drivers on urban flooding is exhibited through the zone differentiated flooding extent. While apparently the effect of climate change on flooding is greater than that of unplanned urban developments, both play an important role in instigating tipping points and intensifying risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Farhana & Moors, Eddy & Khan, M. Shah Alam & Warner, Jeroen & Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Catharien, 2018. "Tipping points in adaptation to urban flooding under climate change and urban growth: The case of the Dhaka megacity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 496-506.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:79:y:2018:i:c:p:496-506
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dorcas Idowu & Wendy Zhou, 2023. "Global Megacities and Frequent Floods: Correlation between Urban Expansion Patterns and Urban Flood Hazards," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Sarker, Md Nazirul Islam & Wu, Min & Alam, G.M. Monirul & Shouse, Roger C., 2020. "Life in riverine islands in Bangladesh: Local adaptation strategies of climate vulnerable riverine island dwellers for livelihood resilience," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Avashia, Vidhee & Garg, Amit, 2020. "Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

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