IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v79y2018icp496-506.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tipping points in adaptation to urban flooding under climate change and urban growth: The case of the Dhaka megacity

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed, Farhana
  • Moors, Eddy
  • Khan, M. Shah Alam
  • Warner, Jeroen
  • Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Catharien

Abstract

Envisioning the future city as the outcome of planned development, several master and strategic plans for Dhaka were prepared. However, these plans, do not adequately address the well-known and combined effects of climate change and unplanned urbanization on urban flooding. Additionally, the spatial planning component is missing in adaptation planning, which broadly concentrates on the climate change. Long-term adaptation strategies should consider both the temporal and spatial extent of flooding. Uncertainties in climate change and urbanization will induce planning failure beyond the Adaptation Tipping Point for flooding exceeding the thresholds of the bio-physical system or the acceptable limits of societal preference. In this paper, a shift is proposed from the current planning practice of single-dimensional ‘Predict and Act’ towards a more resilience-based ‘Monitor and Adapt’ approach. It is prudent to visualize the effects of urbanization and climate change and translate them into strategies for improved adaptation based spatial planning. Here, Dhaka's exposure to floods under different climate change and urban (planned and unplanned) development scenarios is assessed based on acceptable thresholds obtained from plans (top-down defined) and stakeholders (bottom-up perspectives). The scale of effects of these two drivers on urban flooding is exhibited through the zone differentiated flooding extent. While apparently the effect of climate change on flooding is greater than that of unplanned urban developments, both play an important role in instigating tipping points and intensifying risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Farhana & Moors, Eddy & Khan, M. Shah Alam & Warner, Jeroen & Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Catharien, 2018. "Tipping points in adaptation to urban flooding under climate change and urban growth: The case of the Dhaka megacity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 496-506.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:79:y:2018:i:c:p:496-506
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837717314606
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hessel C. Winsemius & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Ludovicus P. H. van Beek & Marc F. P. Bierkens & Arno Bouwman & Brenden Jongman & Jaap C. J. Kwadijk & Willem Ligtvoet & Paul L. Lucas & Detlef P. van Vuu, 2016. "Global drivers of future river flood risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 381-385, April.
    2. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Jaap C. J. Kwadijk & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan P. M. Mulder & Marco M. C. Hoogvliet & Ad B. M. Jeuken & Rob A. A. van der Krogt & Niels G. C. van Oostrom & Harry A. Schelfhout & Emiel H. van Velzen & H, 2010. "Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(5), pages 729-740, September.
    4. M. Haasnoot & H. Middelkoop & E. van Beek & W. P. A. van Deursen, 2011. "A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 369-381, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sarker, Md Nazirul Islam & Wu, Min & Alam, G.M. Monirul & Shouse, Roger C., 2020. "Life in riverine islands in Bangladesh: Local adaptation strategies of climate vulnerable riverine island dwellers for livelihood resilience," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Avashia, Vidhee & Garg, Amit, 2020. "Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Dorcas Idowu & Wendy Zhou, 2023. "Global Megacities and Frequent Floods: Correlation between Urban Expansion Patterns and Urban Flood Hazards," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. Gersonius & J. Rijke & R. Ashley & P. Bloemen & E. Kelder & C. Zevenbergen, 2016. "Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 201-216, June.
    2. Judy Lawrence & Robert Bell & Adolf Stroombergen, 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand App," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Viera, Oscar & Malekpour, Shirin, 2020. "An analysis of adaptive planning capacity: The case of chilean water utilities," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Babooshka Shavazipour & Theodor J. Stewart, 2021. "Multi-objective optimisation under deep uncertainty," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 2459-2487, December.
    5. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 3-24.
    6. Shirin Malekpour & Rebekah R Brown & Fjalar J de Haan, 2017. "Disruptions in strategic infrastructure planning – What do they mean for sustainable development?," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 35(7), pages 1285-1303, November.
    7. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    8. Malekpour, Shirin & de Haan, Fjalar J. & Brown, Rebekah R., 2016. "A methodology to enable exploratory thinking in strategic planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 192-202.
    9. Adam D. McCurdy & William R. Travis, 2017. "Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 214-229, June.
    10. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    11. Surajit Ghosh & Jayesh Mukherjee, 2023. "Earth observation data to strengthen flood resilience: a recent experience from the Irrawaddy River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2749-2754, February.
    12. Laura Devitt & Jeffrey Neal & Gemma Coxon & James Savage & Thorsten Wagener, 2023. "Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. J. J. Warmink & M. Brugnach & J. Vinke-de Kruijf & R. M. J. Schielen & D. C. M. Augustijn, 2017. "Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4587-4600, November.
    14. Broitman, Dani & Ben-Haim, Yakov, 2022. "Forecasting residential sprawl under uncertainty: An info-gap analysis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Andri Ottesen & Dieter Thom & Rupali Bhagat & Rola Mourdaa, 2023. "Learning from the Future of Kuwait: Scenarios as a Learning Tool to Build Consensus for Actions Needed to Realize Vision 2035," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, April.
    16. Vinícius B. P. Chagas & Pedro L. B. Chaffe & Günter Blöschl, 2022. "Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Tesselaar, Max & Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Robinson, Peter J. & Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. & Zhou, Fujin, 2022. "Charity hazard and the flood insurance protection gap: An EU scale assessment under climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    18. Bethany Robinson & Jonathan D. Herman, 2019. "A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 431-448, March.
    19. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.
    20. Annelie Holzkämper, 2017. "Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-15, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:79:y:2018:i:c:p:496-506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.