IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v78y2022ics0957178722000777.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of transmission auctions on Brazilian electric power companies

Author

Listed:
  • Brandão, Lucas G.L.
  • Ehrl, Philipp

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of electricity transmission line auctions on the stock prices of Brazilian companies. We combine the endogenous switching regression model with flexible copula functions to account for the dependency between a firm's choice to participate in an auction and the impact of the auction's result on the firm's stock price. Both processes are thus modeled as a function of firm-specific and macroeconomic variables while accounting explicitly for their dependence. We show that a lower number of participants, being a state-owned company, and having synergies positively affect the chance of winning an auction. According to the estimated average treatment effect, a new transmission line increases firms' stock prices by 3.7%.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandão, Lucas G.L. & Ehrl, Philipp, 2022. "The impact of transmission auctions on Brazilian electric power companies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:78:y:2022:i:c:s0957178722000777
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2022.101412
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178722000777
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2022.101412?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James J. Heckman & Vytlacil, Edward J., 2007. "Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs, Part II: Using the Marginal Treatment Effect to Organize Alternative Econometric Estimators to Evaluate Social Programs, and to Forecast their Effects in New," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 71, Elsevier.
    2. Dakshina G. De Silva, 2005. "Synergies in Recurring Procurement Auctions: An Empirical Investigation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 55-66, January.
    3. Paul Klemperer, 2002. "What Really Matters in Auction Design," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 169-189, Winter.
    4. Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-1149, September.
    5. Dutra, Joisa & Menezes, Flavio, 2005. "Lessons from the Electricity Auctions in Brazil," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(10), pages 11-21, December.
    6. Rego, Erik Eduardo & Parente, Virginia, 2013. "Brazilian experience in electricity auctions: Comparing outcomes from new and old energy auctions as well as the application of the hybrid Anglo-Dutch design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 511-520.
    7. Adamson, Seabron & Noe, Thomas & Parker, Geoffrey, 2010. "Efficiency of financial transmission rights markets in centrally coordinated periodic auctions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 771-778, July.
    8. Washington Martins Silva & Osvaldo Candido, 2020. "Assessing Brazilian electric power transmission auctions," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(1), pages 182-199, February.
    9. Vega, Clara, 2006. "Stock price reaction to public and private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 103-133, October.
    10. Takuya Hasebe, 2013. "Copula-based maximum-likelihood estimation of sample-selection models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 13(3), pages 547-573, September.
    11. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    12. El in Ayka Alp, 2016. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 753-759.
    13. Pircalabu, A. & Benth, F.E., 2017. "A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 283-302.
    14. Rocha, Katia & Moreira, Ajax & Limp, Rodrigo, 2013. "Determinantes dos altos deságios nos leilões de transmissão de energia elétrica no Brasil entre 1999-2010," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(2), June.
    15. Murray D. Smith, 2003. "Modelling sample selection using Archimedean copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 99-123, June.
    16. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    17. Reboredo, Juan C., 2015. "Is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 32-45.
    18. Kishore, T.S. & Singal, S.K., 2014. "Optimal economic planning of power transmission lines: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 949-974.
    19. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Vuong, Quang, 1996. "Structural Analysis of Auction Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 414-420, May.
    20. Luiz T. A. Maurer & Luiz A. Barroso, 2011. "Electricity Auctions : An Overview of Efficient Practices," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2346.
    21. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1969. "A Re-Examination of the Modigliani-Miller Theorem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 784-793, December.
    22. Hunt., Julian David & Stilpen, Daniel & de Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos, 2018. "A review of the causes, impacts and solutions for electricity supply crises in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-222.
    23. Blázquez de Paz, Mario, 2018. "Electricity auctions in the presence of transmission constraints and transmission costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 605-627.
    24. Philipp Ehrl, 2021. "Live large or die young: subsidized loans and firm survival in Brazil," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3479-3503, December.
    25. Yanqin Fan & Andrew J. Patton, 2014. "Copulas in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 179-200, August.
    26. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jörg Schwiebert, 2016. "Multinomial choice models based on Archimedean copulas," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 100(3), pages 333-354, July.
    2. Cassetta, Ernesto & Monarca, Umberto & Nava, Consuelo Rubina & Meleo, Linda, 2017. "Is the answer blowin' in the wind (auctions)? An assessment of the Italian support scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 662-674.
    3. Rahul Singh & Liyuan Xu & Arthur Gretton, 2020. "Kernel Methods for Causal Functions: Dose, Heterogeneous, and Incremental Response Curves," Papers 2010.04855, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    4. Krüger, Steffen & Oehme, Toni & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "A copula sample selection model for predicting multi-year LGDs and Lifetime Expected Losses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 246-262.
    5. Liu, Miaoru & Kasteridis, Panagiotis & Yen, Steven T., 2013. "Breakfast, lunch, and dinner expenditures away from home in the United States," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 156-164.
    6. Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari, 2020. "Rainfall variability and farm households’ food insecurity in Burkina Faso: nonfarm activities as a coping strategy," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(3), pages 567-578, June.
    7. Semih Tumen & Tugba Zeydanli, 2014. "Day-of-the-Week Effects in Subjective Well-Being: Does Selectivity Matter?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 139-162, October.
    8. Gabriela Grotkowska & Leszek Wincenciak & Tomasz Gajderowicz, 2018. "Public–private wage differential in a post‐transition economy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(3), pages 495-522, July.
    9. Almeida, Vinicio de Souza e & Leal, Ricardi Pereira Câmara, 2015. "Análise experimental conjunta do comportamento do investidor em IPOs," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 55(1), January.
    10. Liu, Ruixuan & Yu, Zhengfei, 2022. "Sample selection models with monotone control functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 321-342.
    11. Cassetta, Ernesto & Meleo, Linda & Monarca, Umberto & Nava, Consuelo R., 2017. "Is the answer blowin' in the wind (auctions)? An assessment of Italian auction procedures to promote onshore wind energy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201709, University of Turin.
    12. Viana, Alexandre G. & Ramos, Dorel Soares, 2018. "Outcomes from the first large-scale solar PV auction in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 219-228.
    13. Silva João M. C. Santos & Tenreyro Silvana & Windmeijer Frank, 2015. "Testing Competing Models for Non-negative Data with Many Zeros," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 29-46, January.
    14. Paul Ellickson & Sanjog Misra, 2012. "Enriching interactions: Incorporating outcome data into static discrete games," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, March.
    15. Anabela Santos & Michele Cincera, 2022. "Determinants of financing constraints," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1427-1439, March.
    16. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Quantile Selection Models With an Application to Understanding Changes in Wage Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1-28, January.
    17. Greene, William, 2007. "Functional Form and Heterogeneity in Models for Count Data," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 113-218, August.
    18. Philip G. Berger & Rebecca Hann, 2003. "The Impact of SFAS No. 131 on Information and Monitoring," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 163-223, May.
    19. Vishal Kamat, 2017. "Identifying the Effects of a Program Offer with an Application to Head Start," Papers 1711.02048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    20. Caggese, Andrea, 2007. "Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 683-723, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electric power transmission; Stock prices; Copulas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:78:y:2022:i:c:s0957178722000777. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.