IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v61y2021i6d10.1007_s00181-020-02003-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Live large or die young: subsidized loans and firm survival in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Ehrl

    (Catholic University of Brasília)

Abstract

This paper assesses whether the receipt and financing conditions of subsidized loans from the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) affect the survival of firms between 2003 and 2014. Firms that ever obtain one of those subsidized loans from the BNDES have more employees, affiliates, experience, among other characteristics that are positively related to survival in the market. To address the firms’ nonrandom selection into BNDES loans, I use a novel combination of duration analysis and selection model. The data show that without this correction, the exit risk reduction is overestimated by a factor of three. Notwithstanding, receiving a BNDES loan and experiencing lower interest rates, significantly reduce the exit risk. The results also indicate that the expansion of the BNDES’ credit supply overly attracted low-quality firms into the market and into BNDES loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Ehrl, 2021. "Live large or die young: subsidized loans and firm survival in Brazil," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3479-3503, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-020-02003-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-02003-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-020-02003-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-020-02003-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bonomo, Marco & Brito, Ricardo D. & Martins, Bruno, 2015. "The after crisis government-driven credit expansion in Brazil: A firm level analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 111-134.
    2. Peter Thompson, 2005. "Selection and Firm Survival: Evidence from the Shipbuilding Industry, 1825-1914," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 26-36, February.
    3. Cantillo, Miguel & Wright, Julian, 2000. "How Do Firms Choose Their Lenders? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 155-189.
    4. Krueger, Anne O, 1990. "Government Failures in Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 9-23, Summer.
    5. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2014. "Do Firms Want to Borrow More? Testing Credit Constraints Using a Directed Lending Program," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 572-607.
    6. Dongya Li & Yi Lu & Travis Ng & Jun Yang, 2016. "Does Trade Credit Boost Firm Performance?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 573-602.
    7. Philipp Ehrl, 2018. "Task trade and employment patterns: The offshoring and onshoring of Brazilian firms," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 235-266, April.
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Coelho, Florângela Cunha & Ehrl, Philipp & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Internet access in recessionary periods: The case of Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).
    9. Miguel Manjón-Antolín & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2008. "Firm survival: methods and evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, March.
    10. Patrick Puhani, 2000. "The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February.
    11. Brown, J David & Earle, John S & Lup, Dana, 2005. "What Makes Small Firms Grow? Finance, Human Capital, Technical Assistance, and the Business Environment in Romania," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 33-70, October.
    12. Henrik Hansen & John Rand & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Enterprise Growth and Survival in Vietnam: Does Government Support Matter?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 1048-1069, August.
    13. Philipp Ehrl & Leonardo Monasterio, 2019. "Skill concentration and persistence in Brazil," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 1544-1554, November.
    14. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
    15. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    16. Serguei Kaniovski & Michael Peneder, 2008. "Determinants of firm survival: a duration analysis using the generalized gamma distribution," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 41-58, March.
    17. Claessens, Stijn & Feijen, Erik & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Political connections and preferential access to finance: The role of campaign contributions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 554-580, June.
    18. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Maloney, William F. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel V., 2011. "Does formality improve micro-firm performance? Evidence from the Brazilian SIMPLES program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 262-276, March.
    19. De Mello, João Manoel P. & Garcia, Márcio G.P., 2012. "Bye, bye financial repression, hello financial deepening: The anatomy of a financial boom," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 135-153.
    20. Hanas Cader & John Leatherman, 2011. "Small business survival and sample selection bias," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 155-165, September.
    21. Joseph P. Byrne & Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Firm Survival, Uncertainty, And Financial Frictions: Is There A Financial Uncertainty Accelerator?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 375-390, January.
    22. Frederick J. Boehmke & Daniel S. Morey & Megan Shannon, 2006. "Selection Bias and Continuous‐Time Duration Models: Consequences and a Proposed Solution," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 192-207, January.
    23. Marco Bonomo & Bruno Martins, 2016. "The Impact of Government-Driven Loans in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: what can we learn from firm-level data?," Working Papers Series 419, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    24. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2005. "Financial and Legal Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 137-177, February.
    25. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Vaz, Paulo Henrique, 2017. "Access to long-term credit and productivity of small and medium firms: A causal evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 21-25.
    26. Pablo Fajnzylber & William F. Maloney & Gabriel V. Montes-Rojas, 2009. "Releasing Constraints to Growth or Pushing on a String? Policies and Performance of Mexican Micro-Firms," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 1027-1047, August.
    27. Monteiro, Joana C.M. & Assunção, Juliano J., 2012. "Coming out of the shadows? Estimating the impact of bureaucracy simplification and tax cut on formality in Brazilian microenterprises," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 105-115.
    28. Agarwal, Rajshree & Ann Elston, Julie, 2001. "Bank-firm relationships, financing and firm performance in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 225-232, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marisa Reis Azevedo Botelho & Graciele Fátima Sousa & Michelle Castro Carrijo & Juliene Barbosa Ferreira & Ariana Cericatto Silva, 2022. "Survival determinants for Brazilian companies, 1996 to 2016," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(2), pages 233-266, June.
    2. Assmann, Daisy & Ehrl, Philipp, 2021. "Individualistic culture and entrepreneurial opportunities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1248-1268.
    3. Alves, Pedro Jorge & Lima, Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade & Emanuel, Lucas, 2022. "Natural disasters and establishment performance: Evidence from the 2011 Rio de Janeiro Landslides," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Brandão, Lucas G.L. & Ehrl, Philipp, 2022. "The impact of transmission auctions on Brazilian electric power companies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Francesco Columba & Tommaso Orlando & Francesco Palazzo & Fabio Parlapiano, 2022. "The features of equity capital increases by Italian corporates," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 709, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ugur, Mehment & Vivarelli, Marco, 2020. "The role of innovation in industrial dynamics and productivity growth: a survey of the literature," GLO Discussion Paper Series 648, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Burhan Can Karahasan & Fırat Bilgel, 2020. "State–Business Relations, Financial Access and Firm Performance: A Causal Mediation Analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1033-1074, October.
    3. Mehmet Ugur & Marco Vivarelli, 2021. "Innovation, firm survival and productivity: the state of the art," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 433-467, July.
    4. Mehmet Ugur & Marco Vivarelli, 2020. "Technology, industrial dynamics and productivity: a critical survey," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0011, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Oznur Ozdamar & Eleftherios Giovanis & Sahizer Samuk, 2020. "State business relations and the dynamics of job flows in Egypt and Turkey," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 519-558, December.
    6. Francesco Quatraro & Marco Vivarelli, 2015. "Drivers of Entrepreneurship and Post-entry Performance of Newborn Firms in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 277-305.
    7. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Shaimaa Yassin, 2020. "Job creation or labor absorption? An analysis of private sector job growth in Egypt," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 177-207, July.
    8. Thi Tran & Hai La, 2018. "Why do household businesses in Vietnam stay informal?," WIDER Working Paper Series 64, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Pourya Darnihamedani & Joern Hendrich Block & Jolanda Hessels & Aram Simonyan, 2018. "Taxes, start-up costs, and innovative entrepreneurship," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 355-369, August.
    10. Krüger, Jens J. & von Rhein, Kristina, 2015. "Macroeconomic development and the life cycle of the German automobile industry, 1886-1939," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 224, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    11. Eleftherios Giovanis & Oznur Ozdamar, 2022. "The nexus between business–investment climate and firm performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region," Review of Economics and Political Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(4), pages 257-285, February.
    12. Felipe González & Mounu Prem, 2020. "Losing your dictator: firms during political transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 227-257, June.
    13. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Gupta, Kartick & Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, 2022. "Does corrupt practice increase the implied cost of equity?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Amadou Boly, 2015. "On the Benefits of Formalization: Panel Evidence from Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-038, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Erhardt, Eva, 2017. "Microfinance beyond self-employment: Evidence for firms in Bulgaria," MPRA Paper 79294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mandiefe Piabuo, Serge & Menjo Baye, Francis & Chupezi Tieguhong, Julius, 2015. "Effects of credit constraints on the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises in Cameroon," MPRA Paper 67135, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jul 2015.
    17. Beck, T.H.L., 2011. "The Role of Finance in Economic Development : Benefits, Risks, and Politics," Other publications TiSEM aeeeb28f-152e-40dc-a1b7-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Zhao Rong & David C. Broadstock & Yuanyuan Peng, 2018. "Initial submarket positioning and firm survival: evidence from the British automobile industry, 1895–1970," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 965-993, December.
    19. Alexandra Tsvetkova & Jean-Claude Thill & Deborah Strumsky, 2014. "Metropolitan innovation, firm size, and business survival in a high-tech industry," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, October.
    20. Amadou Boly, 2015. "On the benefits of formalization: Panel evidence from Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 038, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BNDES; Firm survival; Development banks; Subsidized loans; Selection bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-020-02003-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.