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Forecasting peak-day consumption for year-ahead management of natural gas networks

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  • Oliver, Ronan
  • Duffy, Aidan
  • Enright, Bernard
  • O'Connor, Rodger

Abstract

Security of supply is at the forefront of energy policy in the EU and elsewhere. This paper develops a methodology to forecast peak-day gas consumption for the consideration of gas transmission system operators. It is developed for the domestic and small-to-medium enterprise (SME) gas market, based on a review of current practice. From this assessment, a climate-adjusted network degree day (NDDCA) variable is developed to estimate the weather-dependent gas consumption of such markets. We show that solar radiation significantly affects gas consumption and should be considered in consumption models. The study also quantifies the difference in capacity required under alternative gas supply standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver, Ronan & Duffy, Aidan & Enright, Bernard & O'Connor, Rodger, 2017. "Forecasting peak-day consumption for year-ahead management of natural gas networks," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2016.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brabec, Marek & Konár, Ondrej & Pelikán, Emil & Malý, Marek, 2008. "A nonlinear mixed effects model for the prediction of natural gas consumption by individual customers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 659-678.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sen, Doruk & Günay, M. Erdem & Tunç, K.M. Murat, 2019. "Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1106-1118.
    2. Liu, Guixian & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Cong & Li, Jiaman, 2018. "Natural gas consumption of urban households in China and corresponding influencing factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-26.
    3. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    4. David Kaftan & George F. Corliss & Richard J. Povinelli & Ronald H. Brown, 2021. "A Surrogate Weather Generator for Estimating Natural Gas Design Day Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Tomasz Cieślik & Piotr Narloch & Adam Szurlej & Krzysztof Kogut, 2022. "Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Soltanisarvestani, A. & Safavi, A.A., 2021. "Modeling unaccounted-for gas among residential natural gas consumers using a comprehensive fuzzy cognitive map," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Svoboda, Radek & Kotik, Vojtech & Platos, Jan, 2021. "Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting from long-term data collection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).

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