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Mortgage default risk: New evidence from internet search queries

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  • Chauvet, Marcelle
  • Gabriel, Stuart
  • Lutz, Chandler

Abstract

We use Google search query data to develop a broad-based and real-time index of mortgage default risk. Unlike established indicators, our Mortgage Default Risk Index (MDRI) directly reflects households’concerns regarding their risk of mortgage default. The MDRI predicts housing returns, mortgage delinquency indicators, and subprime credit default swaps. These results persist both in- and out-of-sample and at multiple data frequencies. Together, research findings suggest internet search queries yield valuable new insights into household mortgage default risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Chauvet, Marcelle & Gabriel, Stuart & Lutz, Chandler, 2016. "Mortgage default risk: New evidence from internet search queries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 91-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:96:y:2016:i:c:p:91-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2016.08.004
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    Cited by:

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    5. Bouras, Christos & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Lesame, Keagile, 2023. "Forecasting state- and MSA-level housing returns of the US: The role of mortgage default risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
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    7. Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea & Arismendi Zambrano, Juan, 2018. "Tail systemic risk and contagion: Evidence from the Brazilian and Latin America banking network," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 164-189.
    8. Damian Damianov & Cheng Yan & Xiangdong Wang, 2018. "Measures of mortgage default risk and local house price dynamics ," ERES eres2018_163, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Lazarov, Vladimir & Hinterschweiger, Marc, 2018. "Determinants of distress in the UK owner-occupier and buy-to-let mortgage markets," Bank of England working papers 760, Bank of England.
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    11. Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2022. "The demand and supply of information about inflation," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-27, CIRANO.
    12. Ji, Qiang & Gupta, Rangan & Bekun, Festus Victor & Balcilar, Mehmet, 2019. "Spillover of mortgage default risks in the United States: Evidence from metropolitan statistical areas and states," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Simon Oehler, 2019. "Developments in the residential mortgage market in Germany – what can Google data tell us?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2023. "Sentiment-based indicators of real estate market stress and systemic risk: international evidence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-382, September.
    15. Elster, Yael & Zussman, Asaf & Zussman, Noam, 2017. "Rockets: The housing market effects of a credible terrorist threat," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 136-147.
    16. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. David Coble & Pablo Pincheira, 2021. "Forecasting building permits with Google Trends," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3315-3345, December.
    18. Shulin Shen & Yiyi Zhao & Jindong Pang, 2024. "Local Housing Market Sentiments and Returns: Evidence from China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 488-522, April.
    19. Stuart Gabriel & Matteo Iacoviello & Chandler Lutz, 2021. "A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession [Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 864-906.
    20. Su, Chi-Wei & Cai, Xu-Yu & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Can bank credit withstand falling house price in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 257-267.
    21. Damian S. Damianov & Xiangdong Wang & Cheng Yan, 2021. "Google Search Queries, Foreclosures, and House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 177-209, August.
    22. Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul & Sanjiv Sabherwal & Sergiy Saydometov, 2022. "FEAR Index, city characteristics, and housing returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 173-205, March.
    23. Su-Chen Yu & Kuang-Hsun Shih, 2021. "Financial Market Reaction to Patent Lawsuits against Integrated Circuit Design Companies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
    24. Wei‐Fong Pan & James Reade & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Measuring US regional economic uncertainty," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1149-1178, September.
    25. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage default risk;

    JEL classification:

    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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