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Can Google searches help nowcast and forecast unemployment rates in the Visegrad Group countries?

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  • Jaroslav Pavlicek
  • Ladislav Kristoufek

Abstract

Online activity of the Internet users has been repeatedly shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on the job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group -- the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of their inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study the unemployment rates and their interconnection to the job-related searches. We show that the Google searches strongly enhance both nowcasting and forecasting models of the unemployment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaroslav Pavlicek & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2014. "Can Google searches help nowcast and forecast unemployment rates in the Visegrad Group countries?," Papers 1408.6639, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1408.6639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Georg von Graevenitz & Christian Helmers & Valentine Millot & Oliver Turnbull, 2016. "Does Online Search Predict Sales? Evidence from Big Data for Car Markets in Germany and the UK," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2016-07, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    2. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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