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Shocks affecting electricity prices in Kenya, a fractional integration study

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  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.
  • Mudida, Robert
  • Carcel, Hector

Abstract

We conduct a fractional integration and cointegration study of several Kenyan electricity price series in order to determine whether signs of persistence or mean reversion can eventually be discovered. Such features can be considered as relevant when considering the possibilities of shocks affecting the energy market of Kenya, which has recently been subjected to major debate. We conclude that electricity prices in Kenya contain unit roots, implying permanent shocks lasting forever. Among the factors affecting electricity prices, we find oil prices and interest rates have significant positive effects on electricity, and based on the fact that all the series are I(1), long run relationships are examined by means of fractional cointegration. The recently introduced FCVAR model is implemented, with results showing that the series under study are fractionally cointegrated, with oil price shocks affecting electricity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Carcel, Hector, 2017. "Shocks affecting electricity prices in Kenya, a fractional integration study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 521-530.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:521-530
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.092
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan, 2023. "Energy prices in Europe. Evidence of persistence across markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
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    3. Samet Gunay, 2018. "Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Model: Evaluation of High/Low and Close/Open Spreads for Precious Metals," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(4), pages 21582440188, November.
    4. Donglan Liu & Xin Liu & Kun Guo & Qiang Ji & Yingxian Chang, 2023. "Spillover Effects among Electricity Prices, Traditional Energy Prices and Carbon Market under Climate Risk," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity prices; Kenya; Fractional integration; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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