IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v38y2013i4p605-612.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break

Author

Listed:
  • Dülger, Fikret
  • Lopcu, Kenan
  • Burgaç, Almıla
  • Ballı, Esra

Abstract

This paper examines whether Russia suffers from “Dutch Disease” by investigating the real appreciation of the Russian ruble and the relative de-industrialization in the post Soviet Union-era. According to UNDP Russia Report (2009) the Russian economy has indeed exhibited some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease” in recent years as upward movements in oil prices are accompanied by a reduction in the share of manufacturing output and an increase in service prices. Furthermore, the report claims that these developments may trigger a recession in Russia in the future. Using Gregory and Hansen (1996a, 1996b) and Arai and Kurozumi (2007) structural break cointegration frameworks, our results indicate that the Russian economy exhibits some typical symptoms of “Dutch Disease”. Although the diagnosis is not certain, the risk is evident. Hence, policies that would make the Russian economy more robust to shocks in the oil price need to be carefully designed and implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Dülger, Fikret & Lopcu, Kenan & Burgaç, Almıla & Ballı, Esra, 2013. "Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 605-612.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:4:p:605-612
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.09.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420713000779
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.09.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    2. E. Gurvich & V. Sokolov & A. Ulyukaev., 2008. "The Impact of the Balassa—Samuelson Effect on the Real Ruble Exchange Rate: The Assessment," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Victoria Dobrynskaya & Edouard Turkisch, 2010. "Economic diversification and Dutch disease in Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 283-302.
    6. Bernardina Algieri, 2013. "Determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the Russian Federation," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 1013-1037, October.
    7. R. Ahrend., 2006. "How to Sustain Growth in a Resource Based Economy? The Main Concepts and their Application to the Russian Case," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    8. Michele Ruta & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "International Trade in Natural Resources: Practice and Policy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 331-352, August.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    10. Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2007. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 705-739.
    11. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
    12. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    13. Kejriwal Mohitosh, 2008. "Cointegration with Structural Breaks: An Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-39, March.
    14. Algieri, Bernardina, 2004. "The Effects Of The Dutch Disease In Russia," Discussion Papers 18721, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    15. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (bio) & Hassan Mohammadi (bio), 2011. "Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries: A Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 45(1), pages 313-322, July-Dece.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    17. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    18. Sosunov, K. & Ushakov, N., 2009. "Determination of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble and Assessment of Long-Run Policy of Real Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 3-4, pages 97-121.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 2003/093, International Monetary Fund.
    21. R. Ahrend, 2006. "How to Sustain Growth in a Resource Based Economy (The Main Concepts and their Application to the Russian Case)," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 7.
    22. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    23. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    24. Hassan Mohammadi & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, 2012. "Oil prices and exchange rates in oil-exporting countries: evidence from TAR and M-TAR models," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 766-779, July.
    25. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    26. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Kalamova, Margarita Manolova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank.
    27. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    28. Rudiger Ahrend & Donato de Rosa & William Tompson, 2007. "Russian Manufacturing and the Threat of ‘Dutch Disease': A Comparison of Competitiveness Developments in Russian and Ukrainian Industry," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 540, OECD Publishing.
    29. Ms. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 2007/102, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Stephan Barisitz & Simon-Erik Ollus, 2007. "The Russian Nonfuel Sector: Signs of the Dutch Disease? Evidence from EU-25 Import Competition," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 150-166.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    2. Gerelmaa, Lkhagva & Kotani, Koji, 2016. "Further investigation of natural resources and economic growth: Do natural resources depress economic growth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 312-321.
    3. Fatih Kaplan & Ayşe E. Ünal, 2020. "Industrial Production Index - Crude Oil Price Nexus: Russia, Kazakhstan And Azerbaijan," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 119-142, October –.
    4. Jiaxin Wang, 2022. "Did China’s “National Sustainable Development Plan of Resource-Based Cities” Promote Economic Growth?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Grant Mark Nülle & Graham A. Davis, 2018. "Neither Dutch nor disease?—natural resource booms in theory and empirics," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, May.
    6. Xu, Xiaoliang & Xu, Xuefen & Chen, Qian & Che, Ying, 2016. "The research on generalized regional “resource curse” in China's new normal stage," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 12-19.
    7. Chang, Kuei-Feng & Lin, Jin-Xu & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the Dutch disease thesis from the perspective of value-added trade," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Tiba, Sofien, 2019. "Modeling the nexus between resources abundance and economic growth: An overview from the PSTR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    10. Rahmati, Mohammad H. & Karimirad, Ali, 2017. "Subsidy and natural resource curse: Evidence from plant level observations in Iran," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 90-99.
    11. Falkowski Krzysztof, 2017. "Long-Term Comparative Advantages of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in International Trade," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(4), pages 27-49, December.
    12. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    13. Sofien Tiba & Mohamed Frikha, 2020. "Africa Is Rich, Africans Are Poor! A Blessing or Curse: An Application of Cointegration Techniques," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(1), pages 114-139, March.
    14. Mironov, Valeriy, 2015. "Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 217-239.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    2. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Kojo, Naoko C., 2014. "Demystifying Dutch disease," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6981, The World Bank.
    4. Grant Mark Nülle & Graham A. Davis, 2018. "Neither Dutch nor disease?—natural resource booms in theory and empirics," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, May.
    5. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
    7. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Lindback, Morten & Osmundsen, Petter & Øglend, Atle, 2013. "Shale Gas and the Relationship between U.S. Natural Gas, Liquified Petroleum Gases and Oil Market," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/5, University of Stavanger.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elena Claire Ricci & Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi, 2019. "The Effects of Agricultural Price Instability on Vertical Price Transmission: A Study of the Wheat Chain in Italy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    12. Atle Oglend & Morten E. Lindback & Petter Osmundsen, 2016. "Shale Gas Boom Affecting the Relationship Between LPG and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 211-232, January.
    13. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    14. Vicente Esteve & Juan Sanchis, "undated". "Estimating the substitutability between private and public consumption: the case of Spain, 1960- 2001," Studies on the Spanish Economy 161, FEDEA.
    15. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    16. Gasmi, Farid & Laourari, Imène, 2017. "Has Algeria suffered from the dutch disease?: Evidence from 1960–2013 data," TSE Working Papers 17-780, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
    18. Julia Skretting, 2022. "Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia," Working Papers No 02/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    19. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir & Tonis, Alexander, 2008. "Mechanisms of Resource Curse, Economic Policy and Growth," MPRA Paper 20570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    21. Giovanni Covi, 2014. "Dutch disease and sustainability of the Russian political economy," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2), pages 75-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dutch Disease; Russian economy; Cointegration; Structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:4:p:605-612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.