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Russian Manufacturing and the Threat of ‘Dutch Disease': A Comparison of Competitiveness Developments in Russian and Ukrainian Industry

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  • Rudiger Ahrend
  • Donato de Rosa
  • William Tompson

Abstract

This paper examines the development of Russian industry in comparison with that of Ukrainian industry during 1995–2004 in an effort to ascertain to what extent, if any, Russian manufacturing showed signs of succumbing to ‘Dutch disease’. Ukraine and Russia began the market transition with broadly similar institutions, industrial structures and levels of technology, and the economic reforms implemented in the two countries were also similar, although Ukraine was reckoned to lag behind Russia in many areas. The main difference between them is Russia’s far greater resource wealth. It follows that differences in industrial development since 1991 may to some degree be attributable to differences in initial natural resource endowments. In short, Ukraine could provide a rough approximation of how a resource-poor Russia might have developed over the transition. Le secteur manufacturier russe et la menace du « syndrome néerlandais » Comparaison du développement de la compétitivité des industries russe et ukrainienne Cette étude analyse le développement de l’industrie russe en le comparant avec celui de l’industrie ukrainienne sur la période 1995-2004, afin d’établir - si tel était le cas - dans quelle mesure l’industrie manufacturière en Russie serait affectée par le ‘syndrome néerlandais’. L’Ukraine et la Russie ont commencé leur transition vers l’économie de marché avec des institutions, des structures industrielles et des niveaux de technologie globalement similaires et les réformes mises en œuvre dans les deux pays ont également suivi une voie similaire, même si l’Ukraine est considérée comme étant en retard par rapport à la Russie dans beaucoup de domaines. La différence principale entre les deux pays est la richesse en ressources naturelles, bien plus importante en Russie. Il en résulte que les différences dans le développement industriel depuis 1991 peuvent, dans une certaine mesure, être attribuées aux différences de dotations intiales en ressources naturelles. En résumé, l’Ukraine peut fournir une approximation fruste de la manière dont une Russie pauvre en ressources naturelles aurait pu se développer sur la période de transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Ahrend & Donato de Rosa & William Tompson, 2007. "Russian Manufacturing and the Threat of ‘Dutch Disease': A Comparison of Competitiveness Developments in Russian and Ukrainian Industry," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 540, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:540-en
    DOI: 10.1787/322823013852
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Clemens, Marius & Fuhrmann, Wilfried, 2008. "Rohstoffbasierte Staatsfonds: Theorie und Empirie [Resource-based sovereign wealth funds]," MPRA Paper 16933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    3. Mironov, V.V. & Petronevich, A.V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/106i379teb8moplr2gknsi2nfd is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kojo, Naoko C., 2014. "Demystifying Dutch disease," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6981, The World Bank.
    7. repec:zbw:hohpro:338 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andreas Wörgötter & Sihle Nomdebevana, 2020. "Aggregate Public-Private Remuneration Patterns in South Africa," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 461-474, December.
    9. Knobel, Alexander, 2013. "The risks of fiscal policy in countries rich in natural resources," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 29-38, October.
    10. Balázs Égert, 2012. "Dutch diease in the post-soviet countries of central and south-west Asia: How contagious is it?," Post-Print hal-01385841, HAL.
    11. Rudiger Ahrend, 2008. "Can Russia Sustain Strong Growth As a Resource Based Economy?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(02), pages 3-8, July.
    12. Grant Mark Nülle & Graham A. Davis, 2018. "Neither Dutch nor disease?—natural resource booms in theory and empirics," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, May.
    13. repec:old:wpaper:338 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Marañon, Matias & Kumral, Mustafa, 2021. "Empirical analysis of Chile's copper boom and the Dutch Disease through causality and cointegration tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Christoph Böhringer & Victoria Alexeeva-Talebi, 2011. "Unilateral climate policy and competitiveness: The implications of differential emission pricing," Working Papers V-338-11, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2011.
    16. Chang, Kuei-Feng & Lin, Jin-Xu & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the Dutch disease thesis from the perspective of value-added trade," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Andreas Wörgötter & Sihle Nomdebevana, 2019. "Aggregate and sectoral public-private remuneration patterns in South Africa," Working Papers 786, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    19. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
    20. Naoko C. Kojo, 2015. "Demystifying Dutch Disease," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-23.
    21. Balázs Égert, 2009. "Dutch Disease in Former Soviet Union: Witch-Hunting," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0380, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    22. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2014. "Spillover Effects in the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus," EcoMod2014 7160, EcoMod.
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/106i379teb8moplr2gknsi2nfd is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Dülger, Fikret & Lopcu, Kenan & Burgaç, Almıla & Ballı, Esra, 2013. "Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 605-612.
    25. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_004 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    avantage comparatif révélé; competitiveness; compétitivité; coût unitaire de main-d'œuvre; dutch disease; gas; gaz; industrie; industry; natural resources; oil; productivity; productivité; pétrole; ressources naturelles; restructuration; restructuring; revealed comparative advantage; Russia; Russie; salaires; syndrome néerlandais; transition; transition; Ukraine; Ukraine; unit labour costs; wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P23 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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