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The Effects Of The Dutch Disease In Russia

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  • Algieri, Bernardina

Abstract

This paper shows how the Dutch Disease has affected the Russian economy since the start of the transition in the early 1990s. Four symptoms have been detected, namely: 1) a real exchange rate appreciation, 2) a temporary improved economic situation, 3) an output decline in the non-booming-sector, 4) an export reduction in the non-booming-sector. An extended version of the Balassa-Samuelson model has been implemented to test symptom 1. Our results suggest a positive long-run cointegration relationship between the real exchange rate and the oil price. A 7% real appreciation is caused by a 10% oil price shock. Moreover, a 10% increase in oil prices leads to a 2% GDP growth, while a 10% real appreciation is associated with a 2.1% output decline. The total effect on GDP growth, considering the Balassa-Samuelson effect, confirms symptom 2. Finally, the domestic industrial production drops and high-tech and textile exports are crowed out. This indicates that the Russian economy is also affected by symptoms 3 and 4. We conclude that Russia's government should invest the tax revenues collected from the resource sector such that the structure of the economy becomes more diversified and less vulnerable to exogenous shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Algieri, Bernardina, 2004. "The Effects Of The Dutch Disease In Russia," Discussion Papers 18721, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubzefd:18721
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18721
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    Cited by:

    1. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2013. "The Dutch Disease in the Portuguese Economy," GEMF Working Papers 2013-05, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    2. Alena Petrushkevich, 2013. "Russian Federation: Drivers and Challenges of Economic Growth and Development," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1305, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    3. Dülger, Fikret & Lopcu, Kenan & Burgaç, Almıla & Ballı, Esra, 2013. "Is Russia suffering from Dutch Disease? Cointegration with structural break," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 605-612.
    4. Bernardina Algieri, 2007. "Trade Specialisation Dynamics in Russia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 232-258, June.
    5. Ali Taiebnia & Gity Shakeri, 2012. "The Impact of Oil Price Rise on Industrial Production," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 17(1), pages 13-31, winter.
    6. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2022. "Exclusive Linear Modeling Approach to the Natural Resource Curse in the Azerbaijani Economy: Examples of Stepwise Regression," EconStor Preprints 266036, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    Keywords

    Political Economy;

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