Trade hyperglobalization is dead. Long live...?

This paper examines the evolving landscape of global trade since the global financial crisis. It argues that a new era--characterized by the deglobalization of goods and the slower yet persistent globalization of services--has supplanted the era of hyperglobalization. It posits that the halt in manufacturing's shrinking share in global value added may have mitigated even stronger deglobalization caused by a number of influences such as slowing income convergence, financial deglobalization, and more restrictive trade policies. The paper also documents the end of disruptive North-South trade and highlights a new China puzzle, in which sharp internal trade contraction coexists with surging global export shares. It also reveals a positive correlation between mercantilism and both trade and growth at the global level.