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The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade

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  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz
  • Koutronas, Evangelos

Abstract

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of a territorial military conflict. The Intraregional Trade Disruption from War Simulator (ITDW-Simulator) attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of the military conflict. The model suggests two primary indicators and four secondary indicators. The final trade suffocation index (TS-Index) and the final investment desgrowth from war function (−δw) measure trade disruption’s potential impact on international trade patterns and economic development. The agriculture exports, industrial and manufacturing exports, service exports, and FDI flows capture the trade and investment interdependency. The model investigates the impact of the Russo-Ukraine military conflict on the bilateral trade and investment between the Russian Federation and the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:599-616
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Khrystyna Huk & Ayaz Zeynalov, 2022. "Regional Disparities and Economic Growth in Ukraine," Papers 2211.05666, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Erik Braun & Emese Braun & András Gyimesi & Zita Iloskics & Tamás Sebestyén, 2023. "Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 2950-2982, October.
    5. Eydam, Ulrich & Leupold, Florian, 2024. "What is it good for? On the inflationary effects of military conflicts," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    6. Cui, Lianbiao & Yue, Suyun & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Duan, Mei, 2023. "Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    8. Sirgit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenkery, 2022. "European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-03898833, HAL.
    9. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Xu, Shuanglei & Deng, Youyi & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Geopolitical Conflict and Risk and the EU Energy Trading: A Dynamic Evolutionary Networks Analysis," Working Papers 14-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    11. Ichim Alexandru-Mihăiță, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of the European Union's Economy and Politics in the Context of the War in Ukraine," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 482-493.
    12. Marta Anita Karaś & Michał Boda, 2024. "Stabilność i wyniki finansowe banków w krajach Europy graniczących z konfliktem militarnym w Ukrainie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 64-111.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; Ukraine; Trade suffocation; International trade; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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