IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/trr/wpaper/201408.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of UN and US Economic Sanctions on GDP Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Neuenkirch
  • Florian Neumeier

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically assess how economic sanctions imposed by the UN and the US affect the target states’ GDP growth. Our sample includes 68 countries and covers the period 1976–2012. We find, first, that sanctions imposed by the UN have a statistically and economically significant influence on economic growth. On average, the imposition of UN sanctions decreases the target state’s real per capita GDP growth rate by 2.3–3.5 percentage points (pp). These adverse effects last for a period of 10 years. Comprehensive UN economic sanctions, that is, embargoes affecting nearly all economic activity, trigger a reduction in GDP growth by more than 5 pp. Second, the effect of US sanctions is much smaller and less distinct. The imposition of US sanctions decreases GDP growth in the target state over a period of 7 years and, on average, by 0.5–0.9 pp.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2014. "The Impact of UN and US Economic Sanctions on GDP Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2014-08, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:201408
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uni-trier.de/fileadmin/fb4/prof/VWL/EWF/Research_Papers/2014-08.pdf
    File Function: Third version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Vreeland,James Raymond & Dreher,Axel, 2014. "The Political Economy of the United Nations Security Council," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521518413, January.
    4. Oechslin, Manuel, 2014. "Targeting autocrats: Economic sanctions and regime change," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-40.
    5. Simon J. Evenett, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on South African Exports," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 557-573, November.
    6. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    7. William H. Kaempfer & Anton D. Lowenberg & William Mertens, 2004. "International Economic Sanctions Against a Dictator," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 29-51, March.
    8. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2009. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd Edition (paper)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4129, April.
    9. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    10. A. Cooper Drury, 1998. "Revisiting Economic Sanctions Reconsidered," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 35(4), pages 497-509, July.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-163, June.
    12. Gibbons, E. & Garfield, R., 1999. "The impact of economic sanctions on health and human rights in Haiti, 1991-1994," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(10), pages 1499-1504.
    13. repec:bla:scotjp:v:49:y:2002:i:5:p:557-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Daponte, B.O. & Garfield, R., 2000. "The effect of economic sanctions on the mortality of Iraqi children prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(4), pages 546-552.
    15. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
    16. Kaemfer, William H & Lowenberg, Anton D, 1988. "The Theory of International Economic Sanctions: A Public Choice Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 786-793, September.
    17. Dursun Peksen & A. Cooper Drury, 2010. "Coercive or Corrosive: The Negative Impact of Economic Sanctions on Democracy," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 240-264, August.
    18. Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Determinants of Long-term Growth: New Results Applying Roboust Estimation and Extreme Bounds," TWI Research Paper Series 12, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    19. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1990. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: 2nd Edition," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2016. "The impact of US sanctions on poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 110-119.
    2. Onialisoa Mirana Rakotoarivelo & Hanitriniaina Sammy Gr´egoire Ravelonirina, 2019. "On the Dynamic of Country Development," Journal of Mathematics Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, April.
    3. William Seitz & Alberto Zazzaro, 2020. "Sanctions and public opinion: The case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 817-843, October.
    4. Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2019. "Do sanctions lead to a decline in civil liberties?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 191-215, September.
    5. Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2015. "Always Affecting the Wrong People? The Impact of US Sanctions on Poverty," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201510, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Kirill Chmel & Alexander Demin & Kirill Kazantcev, 2017. "Dictators’ Behavior Under Conditions of Economic Sanctions Cumulative Effect," HSE Working papers WP BRP 50/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Martin Gassebner & Jerg Gutmann & Stefan Voigt, 2016. "When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 293-313, December.
    8. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Political Economy of International Sanctions," Research Papers in Economics 2024-07, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    9. Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi & Roberto Nisticò, 2021. "Employment Effects of Economic Sanctions," CSEF Working Papers 615, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    10. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Precision-guided or blunt? The effects of US economic sanctions on human rights," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 161-182, October.
    11. Denise Guthrie & Erick Duchesne, 2003. "(Mis)Selection Effects and Sovereignty Costs: An Alternative Measure of the Costs of Sanctions," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20032, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
    12. von Soest, Christian & Wahman, Michael, 2013. "Sanctions and Democratization in the Post-Cold War Era," GIGA Working Papers 212, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    13. Moghaddasi Kelishomi, Ali & Nisticò, Roberto, 2022. "Employment effects of economic sanctions in Iran," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    14. Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2009. "On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 15-29, March.
    15. repec:dgr:rugsom:06c05 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Dizaji, S.F. & Lis, P. & Murshed, S.M. & Zweiri, M., 2020. "What the political economy literature tells us about blockades and sanctions," ISS Working Papers - General Series 130655, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    17. Faraji Dizaji, Sajjad & Ghadamgahi, Zeinab Sadat, 2021. "The impact of smart and non-smart sanctions on government health expenditures: evidence from developing resource-based countries," MPRA Paper 108787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Daniel Verdier, 2009. "Sanctions as revelation regimes," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 13(3), pages 251-278, September.
    19. Mehmet Onder, 2019. "Regime Type, Issue Type and Economic Sanctions: The Role of Domestic Players," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Chen, Mo & Xue, Wei-Xian & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping & Liu, Xiaoxia, 2024. "The impact of economic sanctions on the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-174.
    21. Niclas Berggren & Mikael Elinder, 2012. "Is tolerance good or bad for growth?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 283-308, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; economic sanctions; United Nations; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:201408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Matthias Neuenkirch (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/petride.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.