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Fighting the COVID pandemic: National policy choices in non-pharmaceutical interventions

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  • Alfano, Vincenzo
  • Ercolano, Salvatore
  • Pinto, Mauro

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic pushed countries to adopt various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Due to the features of the pandemic, which spread over time and space, governments could decide whether or not to follow policy choices made by leaders of countries affected by the virus before them. In this study, we aim to empirically model the adoption of NPIs during the first wave of COVID-19 in the 14 European countries with more than 10 million inhabitants, in order to detect whether a policy diffusion mechanism occurred. By means of a multivariate approach based on Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis, we manage to derive three clusters representing different behaviour models to which the different European countries belong in the different periods of the first wave: pre-pandemic, summer relaxation and deep-lockdown scenarios. These results bring a two-fold contribution: on the one hand, they may help us to understand differences and similarities among European countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak and guide future quantitative or qualitative studies; on the other, our findings suggest that with minor exceptions (such as Sweden and Poland), different countries adopted very similar policy strategies, which are likely to be due more to the unfolding of the pandemic than to specific governmental strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Fighting the COVID pandemic: National policy choices in non-pharmaceutical interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 22-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:44:y:2022:i:1:p:22-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.11.003
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    2. López-Mendoza, Héctor & González-Álvarez, María A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Alfano, Vincenzo, 2024. "Unlocking the importance of perceived governance: The impact on COVID-19 in NUTS-2 European regions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    4. Alfano, Vincenzo, 2023. "God or good health? Evidence on belief in God in relation to public health during a pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Alfano, Vincenzo & Capasso, Salvatore & Ercolano, Salvatore & Goel, Rajeev K., 2022. "Death takes no bribes: Impact of perceived corruption on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at combating COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    6. Funke, Michael & Ho, Tai-kuang & Tsang, Andrew, 2023. "Containment measures during the COVID pandemic: The role of non-pharmaceutical health policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 90-102.
    7. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2022. "Back to school or … back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    8. Alfano, Vincenzo & Guarino, Massimo, 2023. "The effect of self-esteem on the spread of a pandemic. A cross-country analysis of the role played by self-esteem in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    9. Martín Cicowiez & Natalia Porto & Manuela Cerimelo, 2024. "Short- and long-term effects of domestic tourism promotion in Argentina after COVID-19," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(7), pages 1880-1899, November.
    10. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Carrot and stick: Economic support and stringency policies in response to COVID-19," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2023. "Fear itself. Is fear a determinant of the efficacy oflockdowns?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; NPIs; Policy diffusion; Policy convergence; CA; PCA; OxCGRT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-

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