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The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

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  • Artzrouni, Marc
  • Tramontana, Fabio

Abstract

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.

Suggested Citation

  • Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2014. "The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 241-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:36:y:2014:i:2:p:241-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.01.012
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    2. Berrittella, Maria & Zhang, Jian, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability in the EU: From the short-term risk to the long-term challenge," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 261-280.
    3. Silva, César M. & Rosa, Silvério & Alves, Helena & Carvalho, Pedro G., 2016. "A mathematical model for the customer dynamics based on marketing policy," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 273(C), pages 42-53.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Compartmental model; Debt; System of differential equations; Dynamical system; Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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