IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v32yi4p478-487.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tax more or spend less? Asymmetries in the UK revenue-expenditure nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Saunoris, James W.
  • Payne, James E.

Abstract

Unlike previous research on the causal relationship between government revenues and expenditures in the United Kingdom, this study estimates an asymmetric error correction model within a momentum threshold autoregressive framework over the period 1955-2009. The results indicate that government revenues respond to short-run changes in government expenditures as well as asymmetrically to budgetary disequilibrium. With respect to the asymmetric adjustment, the response of government revenues to a worsening budget is faster (in absolute terms) than to an improving budget. Thus, contrary to previous studies on the UK, the empirical findings lend support for the spend-tax hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Saunoris, James W. & Payne, James E., 2010. "Tax more or spend less? Asymmetries in the UK revenue-expenditure nexus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 478-487, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:4:p:478-487
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(10)00047-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak, 2008. "Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 823-830.
    2. Oluwole Owoye, 1995. "The causal relationship between taxes and expenditures in the G7 countries: cointegration and error-correction models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 19-22.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Christos Kollias & Susana-Maria Paleologou, 2006. "Fiscal policy in the European Union: Tax and spend, spend and tax, fiscal synchronisation or institutional separation?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 108-120, May.
    5. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Spend spend-and and-tax: a panel data investigation for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 1-32.
    6. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Spend-and-tax: a panel data investigation for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2542-2548.
    7. Koren, Stephan & Stiassny, Alfred, 1998. "Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An International Study," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-191, April.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    9. Bradley T. Ewing & James E. Payne & Mark A. Thompson & Omar M. Al-Zoubi, 2006. "Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence from Asymmetric Modeling," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(1), pages 190-200, July.
    10. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-927, October.
    11. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    12. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    13. Tsangyao Chang & Wen Rong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2002. "Tax-and-spend, spend-and-tax, or fiscal synchronization: new evidence for ten countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1553-1561.
    14. Barry Anderson & Joseph J. Minarik, 2006. "Design Choices for Fiscal Policy Rules," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 159-208.
    15. Buchanan, James M. & Wagner, Richard E., 1978. "Dialogues concerning fiscal religion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 627-636, August.
    16. Matthew Zapf & James Payne, 2009. "Asymmetric modelling of the revenue-expenditure nexus: evidence from aggregate state and local government in the US," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 871-876.
    17. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1979. "Approaches To the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth," Public Finance Review, , vol. 7(1), pages 3-23, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pelin Varol İYIDOĞAN & Eda BALIKÇIOĞLU & H. Hakan YILMAZ, 2017. "The Tax Effects of Health Expenditures on Aging Economies: Empirical Evidence on Selected OECD Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 116-127, March.
    2. A. Phiri, 2019. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: new evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1515-1547, May.
    3. Temel Gurdal & Mucahit Aydin & Veysel Inal, 2021. "The relationship between tax revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 305-337, May.
    4. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "How sustainable are fiscal budgets in the Kingdom of Swaziland?," MPRA Paper 85149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Athanasios Athanasenas & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Emmanouil Trachanas, 2014. "Government spending and revenues in the Greek economy: evidence from nonlinear cointegration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 365-376, May.
    6. Dokas, Ioannis & Panagiotidis, Minas & Papadamou, Stephanos & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2024. "The impact of the shadow economy on the direct-indirect tax mix: Can central banks’ independence mitigate the effect?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 475-493.
    7. Syed Ali Raza & Syed Zaki Hassan & Arshian Sharif, 2019. "Asymmetric Relationship Between Government Revenues and Expenditures in a Developing Economy: Evidence from a Non-linear Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(5), pages 1179-1195, October.
    8. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2014. "The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 241-256.
    9. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Psarianos, Iacovos, 2014. "Fiscal imbalances and asymmetric adjustment under Labour and Conservative governments in the UK," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 208-213.
    10. Komain Jiranyakul, 2023. "Is the Thai government revenue-spending nexus asymmetric?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 404-419, April.
    11. Taner TURAN & Mesut KARAKAŞ, 2018. "The Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: Nonlinear Bounds Testing Approach (NARDL)," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    12. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2018. "Government spending and revenues in Sweden 1722–2011: evidence from hidden cointegration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 543-557, August.
    13. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2013. "The debt trap: a two-compartment train wreck," MPRA Paper 47578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla & Abdalla Sirag & Hamisu Sadi Ali & Ibrahim Muye Muhammad, 2016. "Public Revenue-Expenditure Nexus in South Africa: Are there Asymmetries?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 520-537, December.
    15. Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability in the presence of structural breaks: Does overconfidence on resource exports hurt government’s ability to finance debt? Evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170317-117, December.
    16. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Public expenditure and revenue in Italy, 1862-1993," MPRA Paper 27308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Arcade NDORICIMPA, 2017. "Analysis of Asymmetries in the Tax-Spending Nexus in Burundi," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 53-70, March.
    18. Oyeyinka OMOSHORO-JONES, 2020. "Investigating The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence For The Free State Province In A Multivariate Model," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 138-156.
    19. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    20. Fabricio Linhares & Glauber Nojosa, 2020. "Changes in the tax-spend nexus: Evidence from selected European countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3077-3087.
    21. Olumuyiwa Ganiyu Yinusa & Olalekan Bashir Aworinde & Isiaq Olasunkanmi Oseni, 2017. "The Revenue-Expenditure Nexus in Nigeria: Assymetric Cointegration Approach," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 15(1), pages 47-61.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    2. A. Phiri, 2019. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: new evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1515-1547, May.
    3. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2018. "Government spending and revenues in Sweden 1722–2011: evidence from hidden cointegration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 543-557, August.
    4. Athanasios Athanasenas & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Emmanouil Trachanas, 2014. "Government spending and revenues in the Greek economy: evidence from nonlinear cointegration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 365-376, May.
    5. George A. Vamvoukas, 2011. "Panel Data Modeling and the Tax-Spend Controversy in the Euro Zone," Post-Print hal-00716629, HAL.
    6. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:420-432 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Oyeyinka OMOSHORO-JONES, 2020. "Investigating The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence For The Free State Province In A Multivariate Model," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 138-156.
    8. Luis Gil-Alana, 2009. "Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence of Fractional Cointegration in an Asymmetric Modeling," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(2), pages 143-155, May.
    9. Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: A tale of three countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 52-60.
    10. Bradley T. Ewing & James E. Payne & Mark A. Thompson & Omar M. Al‐Zoubi, 2006. "Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence from Asymmetric Modeling," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(1), pages 190-200, July.
    11. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "How sustainable are fiscal budgets in the Kingdom of Swaziland?," Working Papers 1810, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Mar 2018.
    12. Taner TURAN & Mesut KARAKAŞ, 2018. "The Relationship between Government Spending and Revenue: Nonlinear Bounds Testing Approach (NARDL)," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    13. George A Vamvoukas, 2012. "Panel data modelling and the tax-spend controversy in the euro zone," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4073-4085, November.
    14. Mihai Mutascu, 2015. "Government revenues and expenditures in the EU ex-communist countries: a bootstrap panel Granger causality approach," Working Papers halshs-01109233, HAL.
    15. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:2:p:143-155 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla & Abdalla Sirag & Hamisu Sadi Ali & Ibrahim Muye Muhammad, 2016. "Public Revenue-Expenditure Nexus in South Africa: Are there Asymmetries?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 520-537, December.
    17. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:697:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Michele Salvi & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2023. "Tax more or spend less? Historical evidence from Switzerland’s federal budget plans," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 678-705, June.
    19. Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability in the presence of structural breaks: Does overconfidence on resource exports hurt government’s ability to finance debt? Evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170317-117, December.
    20. Mesut Karakas & Taner Turan, 2019. "The Government Spending-Revenue Nexus in CEE Countries: Some Evidence for Asymmetric Effects," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(6), pages 633-647.
    21. G A Vamvoukas, 2011. "The Tax-Spend Debate with an Application to the EU," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, March.
    22. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Untangling the web of causalities among four disaggregate government expenditures, government revenue and output in Taiwan," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 99-107.
    23. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Bugra Ozbeser, 2023. "Government Expenditures and Tax Revenues in the United States of America," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:4:p:478-487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.