IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v66y2018icp167-179.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change

Author

Listed:
  • Nilsson, Isabelle
  • Delmelle, Elizabeth

Abstract

This paper is focused on the identification of, and the dynamics associated with, neighborhoods that are more prone to undergo socioeconomic and demographic changes following rail transit investments. Utilizing data from 9 metropolitan areas that have invested in light rail between 1980 and 2010, a k-means clustering approach is used to construct discrete multivariate neighborhood typologies. Together with Markov chains, we are able to examine transitions between neighborhood types before and after the opening of a station. Results for affected neighborhoods are compared to city-wide transitions to uncover differences. Our findings suggest that there is a significant difference in transit and non-transit neighborhood transitions. There also appears to be a difference in trajectories between Walk-and-Ride and Park-and-Ride neighborhoods. While neighborhoods are largely stable over time, impoverished neighborhoods are most likely to experience changes (such as gentrification) following the opening of a transit station. The most affluent neighborhoods are the least likely to experience change but are associated with the most probable trajectory of change featuring densification. Finally, there is little evidence that socioeconomic ascent following station openings is associated with significant changes in racial composition. Knowledge about neighborhood dynamics associated with transit investments can aid policy makers and planners in achieving socioeconomic goals of transit investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Nilsson, Isabelle & Delmelle, Elizabeth, 2018. "Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 167-179.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:167-179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096669231730354X
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McKinnish, Terra & Walsh, Randall & Kirk White, T., 2010. "Who gentrifies low-income neighborhoods?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 180-193, March.
    2. Bickenbach, Frank & Bode, Eckhardt, 2001. "Markov or not Markov - this should be a question," Kiel Working Papers 1086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Elizabeth C. Delmelle, 2016. "Mapping the DNA of Urban Neighborhoods: Clustering Longitudinal Sequences of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Change," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 106(1), pages 36-56, January.
    4. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(5), pages 416-416.
    5. D. Knowles, Richard & Ferbrache, Fiona, 2016. "Evaluation of wider economic impacts of light rail investment on cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 430-439.
    6. Frank Bickenbach & Eckhardt Bode, 2003. "Evaluating the Markov Property in Studies of Economic Convergence," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 363-392, July.
    7. Chase Billingham & Barry Bluestone & Stephanie Pollack, 2010. "Maintaining diversity in America's transit-rich neighborhoods: tools for equitable neighborhood change," New England Community Developments, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1-6.
    8. Bhattacharjee, Sutapa & Goetz, Andrew R., 2016. "The rail transit system and land use change in the Denver metro region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 440-450.
    9. Annelise Grube-Cavers & Zachary Patterson, 2015. "Urban rapid rail transit and gentrification in Canadian urban centres: A survival analysis approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(1), pages 178-194, January.
    10. Mohammad, Sara I. & Graham, Daniel J. & Melo, Patricia C. & Anderson, Richard J., 2013. "A meta-analysis of the impact of rail projects on land and property values," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 158-170.
    11. Ellen, Ingrid Gould & O'Regan, Katherine M., 2011. "How low income neighborhoods change: Entry, exit, and enhancement," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 89-97, March.
    12. Daniel Baldwin Hess & Tangerine Maria Almeida, 2007. "Impact of Proximity to Light Rail Rapid Transit on Station-area Property Values in Buffalo, New York," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(5-6), pages 1041-1068, May.
    13. Michael S Barton & Joseph Gibbons, 2017. "A stop too far: How does public transportation concentration influence neighbourhood median household income?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(2), pages 538-554, February.
    14. Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia & Banerjee, Tridib, 2000. "The Blue Line Blues: Why the Vision of Transit Village May Not Materialize Despite Impressive Growth in Transit Ridership," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt8jd663ht, University of California Transportation Center.
    15. Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion & Eric Pels & Piet Rietveld, 2007. "The Impact of Railway Stations on Residential and Commercial Property Value: A Meta-analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 161-180, August.
    16. Joe Grengs, 2005. "The abandoned social goals of public transit in the neoliberal city of the USA," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 51-66, April.
    17. Dong, Hongwei, 2017. "Rail-transit-induced gentrification and the affordability paradox of TOD," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-10.
    18. Christopher D. Higgins & Pavlos S. Kanaroglou, 2016. "Forty years of modelling rapid transit’s land value uplift in North America: moving beyond the tip of the iceberg," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 610-634, September.
    19. Mathur, Shishir & Ferrell, Christopher, 2013. "Measuring the impact of sub-urban transit-oriented developments on single-family home values," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 42-55.
    20. Elizabeth C Delmelle & Jean-Claude Thill, 2014. "Neighborhood Quality-of-Life Dynamics and the Great Recession: The Case of Charlotte, North Carolina," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(4), pages 867-884, April.
    21. Billings, Stephen B., 2011. "Estimating the value of a new transit option," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 525-536.
    22. Matthew E. Kahn, 2007. "Gentrification Trends in New Transit-Oriented Communities: Evidence from 14 Cities That Expanded and Built Rail Transit Systems," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 155-182, June.
    23. Carol Atkinson-Palombo, 2010. "Comparing the Capitalisation Benefits of Light-rail Transit and Overlay Zoning for Single-family Houses and Condos by Neighbourhood Type in Metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(11), pages 2409-2426, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matheus Pereira Libório & Oseias da Silva Martinuci & Alexei Manso Correa Machado & Renata de Mello Lyrio & Patrícia Bernardes, 2022. "Time–Space Analysis of Multidimensional Phenomena: A Composite Indicator of Social Exclusion Through k-Means," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 569-591, January.
    2. Liu, Yudi & Nath, Nabamita & Murayama, Akito & Manabe, Rikutaro, 2022. "Transit-oriented development with urban sprawl? Four phases of urban growth and policy intervention in Tokyo," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Meriläinen, Marjut & Karhula, Aleksi & Kurvinen, Antti & Falkenbach, Heidi & Ala-Mantila, Sanna, 2024. "Transit-induced socioeconomic ascent and new metro stations in Helsinki Metropolitan Area: Distinct effects on renters, homeowners, and pre-existing housing dwellers," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Su, Shiliang & Zhao, Chong & Zhou, Hao & Li, Bozhao & Kang, Mengjun, 2022. "Unraveling the relative contribution of TOD structural factors to metro ridership: A novel localized modeling approach with implications on spatial planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. González, Silvia R. & Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia & Chapple, Karen, 2019. "Transit neighborhoods, commercial gentrification, and traffic crashes: Exploring the linkages in Los Angeles and the Bay Area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-89.
    6. Bonner, Taylor & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2023. "Achieving equitable outcomes through optimal design in the development of microtransit zones," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Elizabeth Delmelle & Isabelle Nilsson, 2020. "New rail transit stations and the out-migration of low-income residents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(1), pages 134-151, January.
    8. Tornabene, Sara & Nilsson, Isabelle, 2021. "Rail transit investments and economic development: Challenges for small businesses," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Jackson, Sara L. & Buckman, Joshua, 2020. "Light rail development with or without gentrification?: Neighborhood perspectives on changing sense of place in Denver, Colorado," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Elina Sukaryavichute & Elizabeth Delmelle & Colleen Hammelman, 2021. "Opportunities and challenges for small businesses in new transit neighborhoods: Understanding impacts through in‐depth interviews," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 1025-1041, June.
    11. Shadi O. Tehrani & Shuling J. Wu & Jennifer D. Roberts, 2019. "The Color of Health: Residential Segregation, Light Rail Transit Developments, and Gentrification in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Chang, Haoliang & Huang, Jianxiang & Yao, Weiran & Zhao, Weizun & Li, Lishuai, 2022. "How do new transit stations affect people's sentiment and activity? A case study based on social media data in Hong Kong," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 139-155.
    13. Vitor Pestana Ostrensky & Alexandre Alves Porsse & Leonardo Matsuno da Frota, 2022. "Public transport and gentrification. Evidence from São Paulo metro new stations," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(6), pages 254-269, December.
    14. Popovich, Natalie & Spurlock, C. Anna & Needell, Zachary & Jin, Ling & Wenzel, Tom & Sheppard, Colin & Asudegi, Mona, 2021. "A methodology to develop a geospatial transportation typology," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Allen, Jeff & Higgins, Christopher D. & Silver, Daniel & Farber, Steven, 2023. "Are low-income residents disproportionately moving away from transit?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Nilsson, Isabelle & Schuch, Johanna C. & Delmelle, Elizabeth C. & Canales, Kristine L., 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? A survey analysis of neighborhood change and residential mobility concerns around new light rail stations in Charlotte, NC," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Yang, Ziqi & Li, Xinghua & Guo, Yuntao & Qian, Xinwu, 2023. "Understanding active transportation accessibility's impacts on polycentric and monocentric cities' housing price," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Bohman, Helena, 2021. "Same, same but different? Neighbourhood effects of accessibility on housing prices," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 52-60.
    19. Giulio Grossi & Marco Mariani & Alessandra Mattei & Patrizia Lattarulo & Ozge Oner, 2020. "Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach," Papers 2004.05027, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elizabeth Delmelle & Isabelle Nilsson, 2020. "New rail transit stations and the out-migration of low-income residents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(1), pages 134-151, January.
    2. Zhong, Haotian & Li, Wei, 2016. "Rail transit investment and property values: An old tale retold," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 33-48.
    3. Bardaka, Eleni & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2018. "Causal identification of transit-induced gentrification and spatial spillover effects: The case of the Denver light rail," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 15-31.
    4. Aliyu Ahmad Aliyu & Olurotimi Adebowale Kemiki & Muhammad Umar Bello, 2018. "Transportation Accessibility Benefit and the Dynamic Pattern of Real Estate Prices: Emerging Literature," Traektoriâ Nauki = Path of Science, Altezoro, s.r.o. & Dialog, vol. 4(11), pages 1001-1016, November.
    5. Tornabene, Sara & Nilsson, Isabelle, 2021. "Rail transit investments and economic development: Challenges for small businesses," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. AlQuhtani, Saad & Anjomani, Ardeshir, 2019. "Do rail transit stations affect housing value changes? The Dallas Fort-Worth metropolitan area case and implications," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Yen, Barbara T.H. & Mulley, Corinne & Shearer, Heather & Burke, Matthew, 2018. "Announcement, construction or delivery: When does value uplift occur for residential properties? Evidence from the Gold Coast Light Rail system in Australia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 412-422.
    8. Nilsson, Isabelle & Schuch, Johanna C. & Delmelle, Elizabeth C. & Canales, Kristine L., 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? A survey analysis of neighborhood change and residential mobility concerns around new light rail stations in Charlotte, NC," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Bardaka, Eleni & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2019. "A spatial multiple treatment/multiple outcome difference-in-differences model with an application to urban rail infrastructure and gentrification," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 325-345.
    10. Ke, Yue & Gkritza, Konstantina, 2019. "Light rail transit and housing markets in Charlotte-Mecklenburg County, North Carolina: Announcement and operations effects using quasi-experimental methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 212-220.
    11. Dubé, Jean & Le Gallo, Julie & Des Rosiers, François & Legros, Diègo & Champagne, Marie-Pier, 2024. "An integrated causal framework to evaluate uplift value with an example on change in public transport supply," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    12. Dubé, Jean & Legros, Diègo & Devaux, Nicolas, 2018. "From bus to tramway: Is there an economic impact of substituting a rapid mass transit system? An empirical investigation accounting for anticipation effect," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 73-87.
    13. McIntosh, James & Trubka, Roman & Newman, Peter, 2014. "Can value capture work in a car dependent city? Willingness to pay for transit access in Perth, Western Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 320-339.
    14. Pasha, Obed & Wyczalkowski, Chris & Sohrabian, Dro & Lendel, Iryna, 2020. "Transit effects on poverty, employment, and rent in Cuyahoga County, Ohio," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 33-41.
    15. Pilgram, Clemens A. & West, Sarah E., 2018. "Fading premiums: The effect of light rail on residential property values in Minneapolis, Minnesota," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-10.
    16. Li, Jianyi & Huang, Hao, 2020. "Effects of transit-oriented development (TOD) on housing prices: A case study in Wuhan, China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Aliyu Ahmad Aliyu & Olurotimi Adebowale Kemiki & Muhammad Umar Bello, 2018. "Analysis of Current Empirical Studies on Transport Value-Added Effect and Proximate Housing Price Capture," Traektoriâ Nauki = Path of Science, Altezoro, s.r.o. & Dialog, vol. 4(12), pages 1001-1020, December.
    18. Li, Jianling, 2018. "Residential and transit decisions: Insights from focus groups of neighborhoods around transit stations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-9.
    19. Wagner, Gary A. & Komarek, Timothy & Martin, Julia, 2017. "Is the light rail “Tide” lifting property values? Evidence from Hampton Roads, VA," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 25-37.
    20. Dubé, Jean & Andrianary, Eugénie & Assad-Déry, François & Poupart, Janie & Simard, Justine, 2018. "Exploring difference in value uplift resulting from new bus rapid transit routes within a medium size metropolitan area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 258-269.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:167-179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.