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Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change

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  • Nilsson, Isabelle
  • Delmelle, Elizabeth

Abstract

This paper is focused on the identification of, and the dynamics associated with, neighborhoods that are more prone to undergo socioeconomic and demographic changes following rail transit investments. Utilizing data from 9 metropolitan areas that have invested in light rail between 1980 and 2010, a k-means clustering approach is used to construct discrete multivariate neighborhood typologies. Together with Markov chains, we are able to examine transitions between neighborhood types before and after the opening of a station. Results for affected neighborhoods are compared to city-wide transitions to uncover differences. Our findings suggest that there is a significant difference in transit and non-transit neighborhood transitions. There also appears to be a difference in trajectories between Walk-and-Ride and Park-and-Ride neighborhoods. While neighborhoods are largely stable over time, impoverished neighborhoods are most likely to experience changes (such as gentrification) following the opening of a transit station. The most affluent neighborhoods are the least likely to experience change but are associated with the most probable trajectory of change featuring densification. Finally, there is little evidence that socioeconomic ascent following station openings is associated with significant changes in racial composition. Knowledge about neighborhood dynamics associated with transit investments can aid policy makers and planners in achieving socioeconomic goals of transit investments.

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  • Nilsson, Isabelle & Delmelle, Elizabeth, 2018. "Transit investments and neighborhood change: On the likelihood of change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 167-179.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:167-179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.12.001
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    8. Tornabene, Sara & Nilsson, Isabelle, 2021. "Rail transit investments and economic development: Challenges for small businesses," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
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    12. Chang, Haoliang & Huang, Jianxiang & Yao, Weiran & Zhao, Weizun & Li, Lishuai, 2022. "How do new transit stations affect people's sentiment and activity? A case study based on social media data in Hong Kong," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 139-155.
    13. Vitor Pestana Ostrensky & Alexandre Alves Porsse & Leonardo Matsuno da Frota, 2022. "Public transport and gentrification. Evidence from São Paulo metro new stations," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(6), pages 254-269, December.
    14. Popovich, Natalie & Spurlock, C. Anna & Needell, Zachary & Jin, Ling & Wenzel, Tom & Sheppard, Colin & Asudegi, Mona, 2021. "A methodology to develop a geospatial transportation typology," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Allen, Jeff & Higgins, Christopher D. & Silver, Daniel & Farber, Steven, 2023. "Are low-income residents disproportionately moving away from transit?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Nilsson, Isabelle & Schuch, Johanna C. & Delmelle, Elizabeth C. & Canales, Kristine L., 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? A survey analysis of neighborhood change and residential mobility concerns around new light rail stations in Charlotte, NC," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Yang, Ziqi & Li, Xinghua & Guo, Yuntao & Qian, Xinwu, 2023. "Understanding active transportation accessibility's impacts on polycentric and monocentric cities' housing price," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Bohman, Helena, 2021. "Same, same but different? Neighbourhood effects of accessibility on housing prices," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 52-60.
    19. Giulio Grossi & Marco Mariani & Alessandra Mattei & Patrizia Lattarulo & Ozge Oner, 2020. "Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach," Papers 2004.05027, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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