Analysing the impact of network change on transport disadvantage: a GIS-based case study of Belfast

Low-income households are particularly vulnerable to public transport network adjustments given the financial constraints that restrict access to alternatives. Network change has the potential to impact on user’s participation in social and economic activities both positively and negatively, the latter by reinforcing isolation and barriers to opportunity. At the same time, devolved governments across the United Kingdom continue to emphasise the role of transport in combating exclusion, and the need to address transport disadvantage through strategic policy and practical deliverables. It is within this context that the public bus service in Belfast underwent both network and organisational transformation from ‘Citybus’ to ‘Metro’ in 2005. This paper reports on recently completed academic research that examined the relationship between network transformation and transport disadvantage. Whilst the research study encompassed a variety of social groups including women, young adults and elderly people this paper specifically details the experience of low-income households. With an emphasis on methodology, the paper proposes a multi-phased method for evaluating the impact of change in urban areas. By using qualitative and quantitative methods, including the modelling of geographic information, the research tests a model for implementing and on-going monitoring of network change. The Belfast experience demonstrates how network transformation can have differentiated impacts, with the argument that these could have been mitigated by more fully understanding the implications arising from change. The lesson to be applied elsewhere is that ‘unintended consequences’ are a matter to be considered by policy makers, if possible before transformation occurs rather than working in the aftermath.