IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v92y2018i2d10.1007_s11069-018-3232-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Individual transportation decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Lesley Strawderman

    (Mississippi State University)

  • Daniel W. Carruth

    (Mississippi State University)

  • Kathleen Sherman-Morris

    (Mississippi State University)

  • Philip Menard

    (University of South Alabama)

  • Merrill Warkentin

    (Mississippi State University)

  • Karen S. McNeal

    (Auburn University)

Abstract

This study explores the influence of three factors on a person’s decision to drive in winter weather: destination, affected area, and caution level. Participants (n = 555) completed an online survey that included scenarios with text of a simulated radio message involving a character named Mike. After the scenario, participants answered Likert-scaled questions related to their intention to drive (what would you do) and their recommended behavior for others (what should Mike do). There was a significant effect of destination and caution level on the decision to drive. Participants were more likely to respond that they would drive if the destination was work rather than dinner, and if the caution statement was “exercise caution” rather than “do not drive.” There were similar significant effects of destination and caution level on what the scenario character should do. It is recommended that a clear directive be included in warning messages to encourage drivers to stay off the roadways during hazardous weather.

Suggested Citation

  • Lesley Strawderman & Daniel W. Carruth & Kathleen Sherman-Morris & Philip Menard & Merrill Warkentin & Karen S. McNeal, 2018. "Individual transportation decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 927-942, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:92:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3232-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3232-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3232-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-018-3232-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milou Kievik & Jan Gutteling, 2011. "Yes, we can: motivate Dutch citizens to engage in self-protective behavior with regard to flood risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1475-1490, December.
    2. Eisenberg, D. & Warner, K.E., 2005. "Effects of snowfalls on motor vehicle collisions, injuries, and fatalities," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(1), pages 120-124.
    3. Watling, David, 2006. "User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(3), pages 1539-1556, December.
    4. Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1997. "Simulating Travel Reliability," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt30w220k0, University of California Transportation Center.
    5. Andrey, Jean & Hambly, Derrick & Mills, Brian & Afrin, Sadia, 2013. "Insights into driver adaptation to inclement weather in Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 192-203.
    6. Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1998. "Simulating travel reliability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 535-564, September.
    7. Jean Andrey & Brian Mills & Mike Leahy & Jeff Suggett, 2003. "Weather as a Chronic Hazard for Road Transportation in Canadian Cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(2), pages 319-343, March.
    8. Zanni, Alberto M. & Ryley, Tim J., 2015. "The impact of extreme weather conditions on long distance travel behaviour," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 305-319.
    9. Mannering, Fred L. & Hamed, Mohammad M., 1990. "Occurence, frequency, and duration of commuters' work-to-home departure delay," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 99-109, April.
    10. John C. Whitehead & Bob Edwards & Marieke Van Willigen & John R. Maiolo & Kenneth Wilson & Kevin T. Smith, 2000. "“Heading for Higher Ground: Factors Affecting Real and Hypothetical Hurricane Evacuation Behavior,”," Working Papers 0006, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    11. Stanley Smith & Chris McCarty, 2009. "Fleeing the storm(s): an examination of evacuation behavior during florida’s 2004 hurricane season," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 127-145, February.
    12. Khattak, Asad J. & De Palma, André, 1997. "The impact of adverse weather conditions on the propensity to change travel decisions: A survey of Brussels commuters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 181-203, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sardesai, Rupali, 2006. "The impact of stop-making and travel time reliability on commute mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 709-730, November.
    2. Ehrgott, Matthias & Wang, Judith Y.T. & Watling, David P., 2015. "On multi-objective stochastic user equilibrium," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P3), pages 704-717.
    3. Black, Alan W. & Mote, Thomas L., 2015. "Effects of winter precipitation on automobile collisions, injuries, and fatalities in the United States," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 165-175.
    4. Siu, Barbara W.Y. & Lo, Hong K., 2008. "Doubly uncertain transportation network: Degradable capacity and stochastic demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 166-181, November.
    5. Amirgholy, Mahyar & Gonzales, Eric J., 2017. "Efficient frontier of route choice for modeling the equilibrium under travel time variability with heterogeneous traveler preferences," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 11, pages 1-14.
    6. Li-Jun Tian & Hai-Jun Huang & Zi-You Gao, 2012. "A Cumulative Perceived Value-Based Dynamic User Equilibrium Model Considering the Travelers’ Risk Evaluation on Arrival Time," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 589-608, December.
    7. Tan, Zhijia & Yang, Hai & Guo, Renyong, 2014. "Pareto efficiency of reliability-based traffic equilibria and risk-taking behavior of travelers," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-31.
    8. Zhang, Yufeng & Khani, Alireza, 2019. "An algorithm for reliable shortest path problem with travel time correlations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 92-113.
    9. Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong, 2010. "The [alpha]-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium model with stochastic travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 493-513, May.
    10. Matthias Sweet & Mengke Chen, 2011. "Does regional travel time unreliability influence mode choice?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 625-642, July.
    11. Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong & Lam, William H.K., 2011. "Modeling stochastic perception error in the mean-excess traffic equilibrium model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1619-1640.
    12. Agarwal, Sumit & Diao, Mi & Keppo, Jussi & Sing, Tien Foo, 2020. "Preferences of public transit commuters: Evidence from smart card data in Singapore," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Franklin, Joel, 2012. "Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:2, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    14. Berdica, Katja, 2002. "An introduction to road vulnerability: what has been done, is done and should be done," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127, April.
    15. Fosgerau, Mogens & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2010. "Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road," MPRA Paper 24330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chen, Xiaoming & Zhou, Xuesong & List, George F., 2011. "Using time-varying tolls to optimize truck arrivals at ports," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 965-982.
    17. André de Palma & Nathalie Picard, 2006. "Route Choice Behaviour with Risk-Averse Users," Chapters, in: Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), Spatial Dynamics, Networks and Modelling, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Jiang, Meilan & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2004. "Theoretical analysis on the variation of value of travel time savings," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 551-571, October.
    19. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    20. Mickaël Beaud & Thierry Blayac & Maïté Stéphan, 2014. "Measurements and properties of the values of time and reliability," Working Papers 14-06, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jul 2014.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:92:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3232-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.