IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v27y2023ics1703494923000105.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on cryptocurrency market: Evidence from NARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Simran,
  • Sharma, Anil Kumar

Abstract

The study examines the relationship between cryptocurrency market and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) by concentrating on the top five cryptocurrencies assessed by market capitalization. We investigate long and short-run effects of global EPU on the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin and Ripple, along with ascertaining asymmetries, through the NARDL (Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, for the period ranging from September 2017 to August 2022. In the long run, except for Tether, all other cryptocurrencies are negatively affected by EPU, challenging the safe hedge properties of cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance coin and Ripple display positive relations with growing EPU in short run, reflecting their safe haven attributes over a shorter horizon. Additionally, these cryptocurrencies exhibit asymmetries in the short run. Further, we analyse the effect of US, Chinese and Indian EPU on bitcoin returns to understand the effect of EPU shocks of advanced and emerging economies. US EPU has long-run negative effects on bitcoin market, whereas Indian and Chinese EPU have no significant impact in long term. Moreover, our analysis also establishes the detrimental impact of the Indian government's crypto tax policy on bitcoin. The study has relevance for current and potential investors of the cryptocurrency market apart from the policymakers and regulatory bodies.

Suggested Citation

  • Simran, & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on cryptocurrency market: Evidence from NARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:27:y:2023:i:c:s1703494923000105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2023.e00298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494923000105
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2023.e00298?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Shan & Tong, Mu & Yang, Zhongyi & Derbali, Abdelkader, 2019. "Does gold or Bitcoin hedge economic policy uncertainty?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 171-178.
    2. Yechen Zhu & David Dickinson & Jianjun Li, 2017. "Erratum to: Analysis on the influence factors of Bitcoin’s price based on VEC model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-1, December.
    3. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2018. "On the determinants of bitcoin returns: A LASSO approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 235-240.
    4. D’Amuri, Francesco & Marcucci, Juri, 2017. "The predictive power of Google searches in forecasting US unemployment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 801-816.
    5. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    6. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    7. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    8. Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "When, where, and how economic policy uncertainty predicts Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 65-73.
    9. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Vera Z. Eichenauer & Ronald Indergand & Isabel Z. Martínez & Christoph Sax, 2022. "Obtaining consistent time series from Google Trends," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 694-705, April.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
    15. Colon, Francisco & Kim, Chaehyun & Kim, Hana & Kim, Wonjoon, 2021. "The effect of political and economic uncertainty on the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    16. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and consumption in G7 countries: An asymmetry analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 101-113.
    17. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    18. Ecenur Ugurlu‐Yildirim & Baris Kocaarslan & Beyza M. Ordu‐Akkaya, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and US stock market performance: New evidence from nonlinear cointegration analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1724-1738, April.
    19. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    20. Sofiane Aboura, 2022. "A note on the Bitcoin and Fed Funds rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2577-2603, November.
    21. McLaren, Nick & Shanbhogue, Rachana, 2011. "Using internet search data as economic indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 134-140.
    22. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    23. Obryan Poyser, 2019. "Exploring the dynamics of Bitcoin’s price: a Bayesian structural time series approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(1), pages 29-60, March.
    24. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.
    25. Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "Return equicorrelation in the cryptocurrency market: Analysis and determinants," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    26. Simeon Vosen & Torsten Schmidt, 2012. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 683-687, May.
    27. Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the bitcoin market?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    28. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    29. Cheng, Hui-Pei & Yen, Kuang-Chieh, 2020. "The relationship between the economic policy uncertainty and the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    30. Mokni, Khaled & Youssef, Manel & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty: The first test on the hedging and safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    31. Jiang, Shangrong & Li, Xuerong & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "Exploring evolution trends in cryptocurrency study: From underlying technology to economic applications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    32. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    33. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Lang, Kun, 2021. "Can both Bitcoin and gold serve as safe-haven assets? — A comparative analysis based on the NARDL model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    34. Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Twitter-Based uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    35. Yen, Kuang-Chieh & Cheng, Hui-Pei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cryptocurrency volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    36. Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2021. "Does It Matter Where You Search? Twitter versus Traditional News Media," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1757-1795, October.
    37. Inzamam Ul Haq & Apichit Maneengam & Supat Chupradit & Wanich Suksatan & Chunhui Huo, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Cryptocurrency Market as a Risk Management Avenue: A Systematic Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.
    38. Yechen Zhu & David Dickinson & Jianjun Li, 2017. "Analysis on the influence factors of Bitcoin’s price based on VEC model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, December.
    39. Batabyal, Sourav & Killins, Robert, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: Evidence from Canada," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    40. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    41. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.
    42. Nusair, Salah A. & Al-Khasawneh, Jamal A., 2022. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the stock markets of the G7 Countries:A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    43. Gozgor, Giray & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Demir, Ender & Akron, Sagi, 2019. "The relationship between Bitcoin returns and trade policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-82.
    44. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Wen, Danyan & Zhao, Longfeng, 2019. "When Bitcoin meets economic policy uncertainty (EPU): Measuring risk spillover effect from EPU to Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    45. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    46. Papadamou, Stephanos & Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis G., 2021. "Non-linear causal linkages of EPU and gold with major cryptocurrencies during bull and bear markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    47. Demir, Ender & Simonyan, Serdar & García-Gómez, Conrado-Diego & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of bitcoin on altcoins: evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerild QORDIA & Dolantina HYKA, 2024. "The benefits of using IPA in relation to RPA for the cryptocurrency sector, in making decisions on their sale and purchase in the stock market," Smart Cities and Regional Development (SCRD) Journal, Smart-EDU Hub, Faculty of Public Administration, National University of Political Studies & Public Administration, vol. 8(2), pages 31-38, February.
    2. Zhong, Yufei & Chen, Xuesheng & Wang, Chengfang & Wang, Zhixian & Zhang, Yuchen, 2023. "The hedging performance of green bond markets in China and the U.S.: Novel evidence from cryptocurrency uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Adil, Masudul Hasan & Roy, Amrita, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty on investment: Empirical evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Pogorelova, Polina, 2024. "Investigation of the impact of uncertainty indices on Bitcoin volatility using the ARDL model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 35-50.
    5. Chengying He & Yong Li & Tianqi Wang & Salman Ali Shah, 2024. "Is cryptocurrency a hedging tool during economic policy uncertainty? An empirical investigation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Al-Omoush, Khaled Saleh & Gomez-Olmedo, Ana M. & Funes, Andrés Gómez, 2024. "Why do people choose to continue using cryptocurrencies?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    7. Simran, & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2024. "Asymmetric nexus between economic policy uncertainty and the Indian stock market: Evidence using NARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 91-101.
    8. Cebrián, Eduardo & Domenech, Josep, 2024. "Addressing Google Trends inconsistencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Cong, Yufei & Ren, Chunhong, 2023. "Does Natural resource dependency impede sustainable development? Exploring the non-linear consequence of economic complexity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Risk transmissions between bitcoin and traditional financial assets during the COVID-19 era: The role of global uncertainties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Ben Nouir, Jihed & Ben Haj Hamida, Hayet, 2023. "How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "When, where, and how economic policy uncertainty predicts Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 65-73.
    6. Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Bitcoin-US stock nexus," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    7. Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie & Gemici, Eray, 2022. "Can Twitter-based economic uncertainty predict safe-haven assets under all market conditions and investment horizons?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    8. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "Volatility and return connectedness of cryptocurrency, gold, and uncertainty: Evidence from the cryptocurrency uncertainty indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    9. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Twitter-Based uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Wu, Wanshan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gozgor, Giray & Leping, Huang, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect cryptocurrency markets? Evidence from Twitter-based uncertainty measures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Umar, Muhammad & Shahzad, Fakhar & Ullah, Irfan & Fanghua, Tong, 2023. "A comparative analysis of cryptocurrency returns and economic policy uncertainty pre- and post-Covid-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Simran, & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2024. "Asymmetric nexus between economic policy uncertainty and the Indian stock market: Evidence using NARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 91-101.
    14. Mokni, Khaled & Youssef, Manel & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty: The first test on the hedging and safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Chengying He & Yong Li & Tianqi Wang & Salman Ali Shah, 2024. "Is cryptocurrency a hedging tool during economic policy uncertainty? An empirical investigation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2023. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The Nexus of Sophisticated Digital Assets with Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Survey of Empirical Findings and an Empirical Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.
    18. Zhang, Pengcheng & Kong, Deli & Xu, Kunpeng & Qi, Jiayin, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and the stability of cryptocurrency returns: The role of liquidity volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    19. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-58, December.
    20. Inzamam Ul Haq & Apichit Maneengam & Supat Chupradit & Wanich Suksatan & Chunhui Huo, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Cryptocurrency Market as a Risk Management Avenue: A Systematic Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry; Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; EPU; NARDL; Safe haven;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:27:y:2023:i:c:s1703494923000105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.