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Wavelet methods for continuous-time prediction using Hilbert-valued autoregressive processes

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  • Antoniadis, Anestis
  • Sapatinas, Theofanis

Abstract

We consider the prediction problem of a continuous-time stochastic process on an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past. The approach we adopt is based on the notion of autoregressive Hilbert processes that represent a generalization of the classical autoregressive processes to random variables with values in a Hilbert space. A careful analysis reveals, in particular, that this approach is related to the theory of function estimation in linear ill-posed inverse problems. In the deterministic literature, such problems are usually solved by suitable regularization techniques. We describe some recent approaches from the deterministic literature that can be adapted to obtain fast and feasible predictions. For large sample sizes, however, these approaches are not computationally efficient. With this in mind, we propose three linear wavelet methods to efficiently address the aforementioned prediction problem. We present regularization techniques for the sample paths of the stochastic process and obtain consistency results of the resulting prediction estimators. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methods in finite sample situations by means of a real-life data example which concerns with the prediction of the entire annual cycle of climatological El Niño-Southern Oscillation time series 1 year ahead. We also compare the resulting predictions with those obtained by other methods available in the literature, in particular with a smoothing spline interpolation method and with a SARIMA model.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoniadis, Anestis & Sapatinas, Theofanis, 2003. "Wavelet methods for continuous-time prediction using Hilbert-valued autoregressive processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 133-158, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:87:y:2003:i:1:p:133-158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoniadis, Anestis & Dinh Tuan Pham, 1998. "Wavelet regression for random or irregular design," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 353-369, October.
    2. Antoniadis, Anestis & Bigot, Jeremie & Sapatinas, Theofanis, 2001. "Wavelet Estimators in Nonparametric Regression: A Comparative Simulation Study," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 6(i06).
    3. Philippe C. Besse & Herve Cardot & David B. Stephenson, 2000. "Autoregressive Forecasting of Some Functional Climatic Variations," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 673-687, December.
    4. A. Antoniadis, 1997. "Wavelets in statistics: A review," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 6(2), pages 97-130, August.
    5. Iain M. Johnstone & Bernard W. Silverman, 1997. "Wavelet Threshold Estimators for Data with Correlated Noise," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(2), pages 319-351.
    6. Antoniadis A. & Fan J., 2001. "Regularization of Wavelet Approximations," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 939-967, September.
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