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Likelihood inference in small area estimation by combining time-series and cross-sectional data

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  • Torabi, Mahmoud
  • Shokoohi, Farhad

Abstract

Using both time-series and cross-sectional data, a linear model incorporating autocorrelated random effects and sampling errors was previously proposed in small area estimation. However, in practice there are many situations that we have time-related counts or proportions in small area estimation; for example a monthly dataset on the number of incidences in small areas. The frequentist analysis of these complex models is computationally difficult. On the other hand, the advent of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm has made the Bayesian analysis of complex models computationally convenient. Recent introduction of the method of data cloning has made frequentist analysis of mixed models also equally computationally convenient. We use data cloning to conduct frequentist analysis of small area estimation for Normal and non-Normal data situations with incorporating cross-sectional and time-series data. Another important feature of the proposed approach is to predict small area parameters by providing prediction intervals. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated through several simulation studies and also by a real dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Torabi, Mahmoud & Shokoohi, Farhad, 2012. "Likelihood inference in small area estimation by combining time-series and cross-sectional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 213-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:111:y:2012:i:c:p:213-221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2012.05.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jiming Jiang & P. Lahiri, 2006. "Mixed model prediction and small area estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 15(1), pages 1-96, June.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1986. "A standard error for the estimated state vector of a state-space model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 387-397, December.
    3. Lele, Subhash R. & Nadeem, Khurram & Schmuland, Byron, 2010. "Estimability and Likelihood Inference for Generalized Linear Mixed Models Using Data Cloning," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(492), pages 1617-1625.
    4. Smith, Brian J., 2007. "boa: An R Package for MCMC Output Convergence Assessment and Posterior Inference," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i11).
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    Cited by:

    1. Torabi, Mahmoud, 2013. "Likelihood inference in generalized linear mixed measurement error models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 549-557.
    2. Anna Gottard & Giorgio Calzolari, 2014. "Alternative estimating procedures for multiple membership logit models with mixed effects: indirect inference and data cloning," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

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